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Assessing the population at risk of Zika virus in Asia – is the emergency really over?

On November 18, 2016, the WHO ended its designation of the Zika virus (ZIKV) epidemic as a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC). At the same time, ZIKV transmission continues in Asia, with the number of Asian countries reporting Zika cases increasing over the last 2 years. Applyi...

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Autores principales: Siraj, Amir S, Perkins, T Alex
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: BMJ Publishing Group 2017
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5656141/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29082009
http://dx.doi.org/10.1136/bmjgh-2017-000309
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author Siraj, Amir S
Perkins, T Alex
author_facet Siraj, Amir S
Perkins, T Alex
author_sort Siraj, Amir S
collection PubMed
description On November 18, 2016, the WHO ended its designation of the Zika virus (ZIKV) epidemic as a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC). At the same time, ZIKV transmission continues in Asia, with the number of Asian countries reporting Zika cases increasing over the last 2 years. Applying a method that combines epidemiological theory with data on epidemic size and drivers of transmission, we characterised the population at risk of ZIKV infection from Aedes aegypti mosquitoes in 15 countries in Asia. Projections made under the assumption of no pre-existing immunity suggest that up to 785 (range: 730–992) million people in Asia would be at risk of ZIKV infection under that scenario. Assuming that 20% of ZIKV infections are symptomatic, this implies an upper limit of 146–198 million for the population at risk of a clinical episode of Zika. Due to limited information about pre-existing immunity to ZIKV in the region, we were unable to make specific numerical projections under a more realistic assumption about pre-existing immunity. Even so, combining numerical projections under an assumption of no pre-existing immunity together with theoretical insights about the extent to which pre-existing immunity may lower epidemic size, our results suggest that the population at risk of ZIKV infection in Asia could be even larger than in the Americas. As a result, we conclude that the WHO’s removal of the PHEIC designation should not be interpreted as an indication that the threat posed by ZIKV has subsided.
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spelling pubmed-56561412017-10-27 Assessing the population at risk of Zika virus in Asia – is the emergency really over? Siraj, Amir S Perkins, T Alex BMJ Glob Health Analysis On November 18, 2016, the WHO ended its designation of the Zika virus (ZIKV) epidemic as a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC). At the same time, ZIKV transmission continues in Asia, with the number of Asian countries reporting Zika cases increasing over the last 2 years. Applying a method that combines epidemiological theory with data on epidemic size and drivers of transmission, we characterised the population at risk of ZIKV infection from Aedes aegypti mosquitoes in 15 countries in Asia. Projections made under the assumption of no pre-existing immunity suggest that up to 785 (range: 730–992) million people in Asia would be at risk of ZIKV infection under that scenario. Assuming that 20% of ZIKV infections are symptomatic, this implies an upper limit of 146–198 million for the population at risk of a clinical episode of Zika. Due to limited information about pre-existing immunity to ZIKV in the region, we were unable to make specific numerical projections under a more realistic assumption about pre-existing immunity. Even so, combining numerical projections under an assumption of no pre-existing immunity together with theoretical insights about the extent to which pre-existing immunity may lower epidemic size, our results suggest that the population at risk of ZIKV infection in Asia could be even larger than in the Americas. As a result, we conclude that the WHO’s removal of the PHEIC designation should not be interpreted as an indication that the threat posed by ZIKV has subsided. BMJ Publishing Group 2017-09-25 /pmc/articles/PMC5656141/ /pubmed/29082009 http://dx.doi.org/10.1136/bmjgh-2017-000309 Text en © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2017. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted. This is an Open Access article distributed in accordance with the Creative Commons Attribution Non Commercial (CC BY-NC 4.0) license, which permits others to distribute, remix, adapt, build upon this work non-commercially, and license their derivative works on different terms, provided the original work is properly cited and the use is non-commercial. See: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/
spellingShingle Analysis
Siraj, Amir S
Perkins, T Alex
Assessing the population at risk of Zika virus in Asia – is the emergency really over?
title Assessing the population at risk of Zika virus in Asia – is the emergency really over?
title_full Assessing the population at risk of Zika virus in Asia – is the emergency really over?
title_fullStr Assessing the population at risk of Zika virus in Asia – is the emergency really over?
title_full_unstemmed Assessing the population at risk of Zika virus in Asia – is the emergency really over?
title_short Assessing the population at risk of Zika virus in Asia – is the emergency really over?
title_sort assessing the population at risk of zika virus in asia – is the emergency really over?
topic Analysis
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5656141/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29082009
http://dx.doi.org/10.1136/bmjgh-2017-000309
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