Variability in weight change early in behavioral weight loss treatment: Theoretical and clinical implications

OBJECTIVE: Response early in weight loss treatment predicts long-term weight change. Weight variability, independent of absolute early weight change, may also relate to long-term outcomes. This study examined whether weight variability early in treatment predicted later weight loss and maintenance. METHODS: Participants were 183 completers of a yearlong behavioral weight loss program (M age = 51, 81% female, 69% white, M body mass index = 35 kg/m(2)). Weight variability was calculated using weights from the first 6 and 12 weekly treatment sessions. Multiple linear regressions examined whether weight variability predicted subsequent weight change 6, 12, and 24 months later. RESULTS: Weight variability over 6 and 12 weeks predicted less subsequent weight loss at 12 (6-week: β = 0.18, p = 0.02; 12-week: β = 0.33, p < 0.01) and 24 (6-week: β = 0.17, p = 0.03; 12-week: β = 0.15, p = 0.05) months. Relationships held adjusting for covariates. Weight variability was more strongly associated with 6-month weight change in men than women (β = 0.27, p = 0.01). CONCLUSIONS: Elevated weight variability early in a weight loss program predicted poor long-term outcomes, possibly reflecting inconsistent weight control behaviors. Tracking weight variability could prove useful for improving treatment outcome.