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Schistosoma japonicum transmission risk maps at present and under climate change in mainland China

BACKGROUND: The South-to-North Water Diversion (SNWD) project is designed to channel fresh water from the Yangtze River north to more industrialized parts of China. An important question is whether future climate change and dispersal via the SNWD may synergistically favor a northward expansion of sp...

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Autores principales: Zhu, Gengping, Fan, Jingyu, Peterson, A. Townsend
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Public Library of Science 2017
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5659800/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29040273
http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0006021
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author Zhu, Gengping
Fan, Jingyu
Peterson, A. Townsend
author_facet Zhu, Gengping
Fan, Jingyu
Peterson, A. Townsend
author_sort Zhu, Gengping
collection PubMed
description BACKGROUND: The South-to-North Water Diversion (SNWD) project is designed to channel fresh water from the Yangtze River north to more industrialized parts of China. An important question is whether future climate change and dispersal via the SNWD may synergistically favor a northward expansion of species involved in hosting and transmitting schistosomiasis in China, specifically the intermediate host, Oncomelania hupensis. METHODOLOGY/ PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: In this study, climate spaces occupied by the four subspecies of O. hupensis (O. h. hupensis, O. h. robertsoni, O. h. guangxiensis and O. h. tangi) were estimated, and niche conservatism tested among each pair of subspecies. Fine-tuned Maxent (fMaxent) and ensemble models were used to anticipate potential distributions of O. hupensis under future climate change scenarios. We were largely unable to reject the null hypothesis that climatic niches are conserved among the four subspecies, so factors other than climate appear to account for the divergence of O. hupensis populations across mainland China. Both model approaches indicated increased suitability and range expansion in O. h. hupensis in the future; an eastward and northward shift in O. h. robertsioni and O. h. guangxiensis, respectively; and relative distributional stability in O. h. gangi. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: The southern parts of the Central Route of SNWD will coincide with suitable areas for O. h. hupensis in 2050–2060; its suitable areas will also expand northward along the southern parts of the Eastern Route by 2080–2090. Our results call for rigorous monitoring and surveillance of schistosomiasis along the southern Central Route and Eastern Route of the SNWD in a future, warmer China.
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spelling pubmed-56598002017-11-09 Schistosoma japonicum transmission risk maps at present and under climate change in mainland China Zhu, Gengping Fan, Jingyu Peterson, A. Townsend PLoS Negl Trop Dis Research Article BACKGROUND: The South-to-North Water Diversion (SNWD) project is designed to channel fresh water from the Yangtze River north to more industrialized parts of China. An important question is whether future climate change and dispersal via the SNWD may synergistically favor a northward expansion of species involved in hosting and transmitting schistosomiasis in China, specifically the intermediate host, Oncomelania hupensis. METHODOLOGY/ PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: In this study, climate spaces occupied by the four subspecies of O. hupensis (O. h. hupensis, O. h. robertsoni, O. h. guangxiensis and O. h. tangi) were estimated, and niche conservatism tested among each pair of subspecies. Fine-tuned Maxent (fMaxent) and ensemble models were used to anticipate potential distributions of O. hupensis under future climate change scenarios. We were largely unable to reject the null hypothesis that climatic niches are conserved among the four subspecies, so factors other than climate appear to account for the divergence of O. hupensis populations across mainland China. Both model approaches indicated increased suitability and range expansion in O. h. hupensis in the future; an eastward and northward shift in O. h. robertsioni and O. h. guangxiensis, respectively; and relative distributional stability in O. h. gangi. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: The southern parts of the Central Route of SNWD will coincide with suitable areas for O. h. hupensis in 2050–2060; its suitable areas will also expand northward along the southern parts of the Eastern Route by 2080–2090. Our results call for rigorous monitoring and surveillance of schistosomiasis along the southern Central Route and Eastern Route of the SNWD in a future, warmer China. Public Library of Science 2017-10-17 /pmc/articles/PMC5659800/ /pubmed/29040273 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0006021 Text en © 2017 Zhu et al http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) , which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.
spellingShingle Research Article
Zhu, Gengping
Fan, Jingyu
Peterson, A. Townsend
Schistosoma japonicum transmission risk maps at present and under climate change in mainland China
title Schistosoma japonicum transmission risk maps at present and under climate change in mainland China
title_full Schistosoma japonicum transmission risk maps at present and under climate change in mainland China
title_fullStr Schistosoma japonicum transmission risk maps at present and under climate change in mainland China
title_full_unstemmed Schistosoma japonicum transmission risk maps at present and under climate change in mainland China
title_short Schistosoma japonicum transmission risk maps at present and under climate change in mainland China
title_sort schistosoma japonicum transmission risk maps at present and under climate change in mainland china
topic Research Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5659800/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29040273
http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0006021
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