Surface data assimilation of chemical compounds over North America and its impact on air quality and Air Quality Health Index (AQHI) forecasts

The aim of this paper is to analyze the impact of initializing GEM-MACH, Environment and Climate Change Canada’s air quality (AQ) forecast model, with multi-pollutant surface objective analyses (MPSOA). A series of 48-h air quality forecasts were launched for July 2012 (summer case) and January 2014 (winter case) for ozone, NO(2), and PM(2.5). In this setup, the GEM-MACH model (version 1.3.8.2) was initialized with surface analysis increments (from MPSOA) which were projected in the vertical by applying an appropriate fractional weighting in order to obtain 3D analyses in the lower troposphere. Here, we have used a methodology based on sensitivity tests to obtain the optimum vertical correlation length (VCL). Overall, results showed that for PM(2.5), more specifically for sulfate and crustal materials, AQ forecasts initialized with MPSOA showed a very significant improvement compared to forecasts without data assimilation, which extended beyond 48 h in all seasons. Initializing the model with ozone analyses also had a significant impact but on a shorter time scale than that of PM(2.5). Finally, assimilation of NO(2) was found to have much less impact than longer-lived species. The impact of simultaneous assimilation of the three pollutants (PM(2.5), ozone, and NO(2)) was also examined and found very significant in reducing the total error of the Air Quality Health Index (AQHI) over 48 h and beyond. We suggest that the period over which there is a significant improvement due to assimilation could be an adequate measure of the pollutant atmospheric lifetime. ELECTRONIC SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL: The online version of this article (doi:10.1007/s11869-017-0485-9) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.