Association of Waist Circumference Gain and Incident Prediabetes Defined by Fasting Glucose: A Seven-Year Longitudinal Study in Beijing, China

The risk of incident prediabetes with gain in waist circumference (WC) has not been addressed among Chinese adults. A total of 7951 participants who underwent health check-ups at the Beijing Physical Examination Center and Beijing Xiaotangshan hospital were recruited in 2009 and followed up in 2016. Participants were classified into four groups according to categories of percent WC gain: ≤−2.5%, −2.5–2.5%, 2.5–5%, and >5%. The effect of WC gain on prediabetes was evaluated using modified Poisson regression models. Over seven years of follow-up, we identified 1034 prediabetes cases (413 women). Compared with a WC gain of ≤−2.5%, participants with a WC gain of >5% have a higher risk of prediabetes, be they male (non-abdominal obesity at baseline group: RR = 1.57, 95% CI: 1.10–2.24, abdominal obesity at baseline group: RR = 1.66, 95% CI: 1.20–2.30) or female (non-abdominal obesity at baseline group: RR = 1.74, 95% CI: 1.14–2.64, abdominal obesity at baseline group: RR = 2.47, 95% CI: 1.43–4.28). In conclusion, the risk of prediabetes increased significantly with increasing WC for both genders in the Chinese population. Lifestyle interventions aiming at preventing abdominal obesity are urgently needed to reduce the increasing burden of prediabetes, diabetes, and its complications.