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Novel risk stratification with time course assessment of in-hospital mortality in patients with acute heart failure
BACKGROUND: Patients with acute heart failure (AHF) show various clinical courses during hospitalization. We aimed to identify time course predictors of in-hospital mortality and to establish a sequentially assessable risk model. METHODS AND RESULTS: We enrolled 1,035 consecutive AHF patients into d...
Autores principales: | , , |
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Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
Public Library of Science
2017
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Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5667756/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29095900 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0187410 |
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author | Yagyu, Takeshi Kumada, Masahiro Nakagawa, Tsutomu |
author_facet | Yagyu, Takeshi Kumada, Masahiro Nakagawa, Tsutomu |
author_sort | Yagyu, Takeshi |
collection | PubMed |
description | BACKGROUND: Patients with acute heart failure (AHF) show various clinical courses during hospitalization. We aimed to identify time course predictors of in-hospital mortality and to establish a sequentially assessable risk model. METHODS AND RESULTS: We enrolled 1,035 consecutive AHF patients into derivation (n = 597) and validation (n = 438) cohorts. For risk assessments at admission, we utilized Get With the Guidelines-Heart Failure (GWTG-HF) risk scores. We examined significant predictors of in-hospital mortality from 11 variables obtained during hospitalization and developed a risk stratification model using multiple logistic regression analysis. Across both cohorts, 86 patients (8.3%) died during hospitalization. Using backward stepwise selection, we identified five time-course predictors: catecholamine administration, minimum platelet concentration, maximum blood urea nitrogen, total bilirubin, and C-reactive protein levels; and established a time course risk score that could sequentially assess a patient's risk status. The addition of a time course risk score improved the discriminative ability of the GWTG-HF risk score (c-statistics in derivation and validation cohorts: 0.776 to 0.888 [p = 0.002] and 0.806 to 0.902 [p<0.001], respectively). A calibration plot revealed a good relationship between observed and predicted in-hospital mortalities in both cohorts (Hosmer-Lemeshow chi-square statistics: 6.049 [p = 0.642] and 5.993 [p = 0.648], respectively). In each group of initial low-intermediate risk (GWTG-HF risk score <47) and initial high risk (GWTG-HF risk score ≥47), in-hospital mortality was about 6- to 9-fold higher in the high time course risk score group than in the low-intermediate time course risk score group (initial low-intermediate risk group: 20.3% versus 2.2% [p<0.001], initial high risk group: 57.6% versus 8.5% [p<0.001]). CONCLUSIONS: A time course assessment related to in-hospital mortality during the hospitalization of AHF patients can clearly categorize a patient's on-going status, and may assist patients and clinicians in deciding treatment options. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-5667756 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2017 |
publisher | Public Library of Science |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-56677562017-11-17 Novel risk stratification with time course assessment of in-hospital mortality in patients with acute heart failure Yagyu, Takeshi Kumada, Masahiro Nakagawa, Tsutomu PLoS One Research Article BACKGROUND: Patients with acute heart failure (AHF) show various clinical courses during hospitalization. We aimed to identify time course predictors of in-hospital mortality and to establish a sequentially assessable risk model. METHODS AND RESULTS: We enrolled 1,035 consecutive AHF patients into derivation (n = 597) and validation (n = 438) cohorts. For risk assessments at admission, we utilized Get With the Guidelines-Heart Failure (GWTG-HF) risk scores. We examined significant predictors of in-hospital mortality from 11 variables obtained during hospitalization and developed a risk stratification model using multiple logistic regression analysis. Across both cohorts, 86 patients (8.3%) died during hospitalization. Using backward stepwise selection, we identified five time-course predictors: catecholamine administration, minimum platelet concentration, maximum blood urea nitrogen, total bilirubin, and C-reactive protein levels; and established a time course risk score that could sequentially assess a patient's risk status. The addition of a time course risk score improved the discriminative ability of the GWTG-HF risk score (c-statistics in derivation and validation cohorts: 0.776 to 0.888 [p = 0.002] and 0.806 to 0.902 [p<0.001], respectively). A calibration plot revealed a good relationship between observed and predicted in-hospital mortalities in both cohorts (Hosmer-Lemeshow chi-square statistics: 6.049 [p = 0.642] and 5.993 [p = 0.648], respectively). In each group of initial low-intermediate risk (GWTG-HF risk score <47) and initial high risk (GWTG-HF risk score ≥47), in-hospital mortality was about 6- to 9-fold higher in the high time course risk score group than in the low-intermediate time course risk score group (initial low-intermediate risk group: 20.3% versus 2.2% [p<0.001], initial high risk group: 57.6% versus 8.5% [p<0.001]). CONCLUSIONS: A time course assessment related to in-hospital mortality during the hospitalization of AHF patients can clearly categorize a patient's on-going status, and may assist patients and clinicians in deciding treatment options. Public Library of Science 2017-11-02 /pmc/articles/PMC5667756/ /pubmed/29095900 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0187410 Text en © 2017 Yagyu et al http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) , which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited. |
spellingShingle | Research Article Yagyu, Takeshi Kumada, Masahiro Nakagawa, Tsutomu Novel risk stratification with time course assessment of in-hospital mortality in patients with acute heart failure |
title | Novel risk stratification with time course assessment of in-hospital mortality in patients with acute heart failure |
title_full | Novel risk stratification with time course assessment of in-hospital mortality in patients with acute heart failure |
title_fullStr | Novel risk stratification with time course assessment of in-hospital mortality in patients with acute heart failure |
title_full_unstemmed | Novel risk stratification with time course assessment of in-hospital mortality in patients with acute heart failure |
title_short | Novel risk stratification with time course assessment of in-hospital mortality in patients with acute heart failure |
title_sort | novel risk stratification with time course assessment of in-hospital mortality in patients with acute heart failure |
topic | Research Article |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5667756/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29095900 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0187410 |
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