Red cell distribution width as a novel marker for predicting high-risk from upper gastro-intestinal bleeding patients

BACKGROUND: In upper gastrointestinal bleeding (UGIB) patients, early risk stratification allows appropriate therapy that may be helpful for reducing morbidity and mortality. OBJECTIVES: to evaluate the efficacy of red-cell distribution width (RDW) for prediction of high-risk in UGIB patients. METHODS: We conducted a clinical retrospective observational study based on data for UGIB patients from 2012 to 2013. The primary outcome was the high-risk UGIB, defined as those who required urgent intervention and/or 30-days mortality. RDW was categorized into four quartiles: Q1 (≤12.8%), Q2 (12.9–14.4%), Q3 (14.5–16.5%), and Q4 (≥16.6%), and multivariable analysis was performed after adjustment of multiple other risk factor. We also evaluated the efficacy of addition of RDW scores to the Pre-endoscopic Rockall Score (PRS) and the Glasgow Blatchford Score (GBS) scoring system. RESULTS: Of 360 UGIB patients, 229 (63.6%) were high risk. In multivariable analysis, Q3 and Q4 were strongly associated with high risk; odds ratio (95% Confidence Interval) was 3.144 (1.250–7.905) and 4.182 (1.483–11.790) respectively (all p < 0.05). For lower GBS score group (≤ 6), the incidence of high risk was higher in Q4 (30%) and Q3 (20%) than in Q2 (12.5%) and Q1 (11.4%). For lower PRS group (≤ 2), the incidence of high-risk was higher in Q4 (73.7%) and Q3 (57.1%) than in Q1 (35.4%). Receiver operating characteristic analysis showed higher discrimination power in PRS + RDW (Area Under Curve [AUC] = 0.749) than PRS (AUC = 0.715) alone (p = 0.036). Otherwise GBS + RDW (AUC = 0.873) did not show a significant higher discrimination power than the GBS (AUC = 0.864) alone (p = 0.098). CONCLUSIONS: For UGIB patients, a high RDW (≥ 14.5%) was strongly associated with high risk UGIB. In practice, the combination of RDW with the PRS scoring indexes may increase the accuracy of risk stratification.