A preoperative scoring system to predict the risk of No.10 lymph node metastasis for advanced upper gastric cancer: a large case report based on a single-center study

PURPOSE: To investigate upper stomach carcinoma risk factors for No. 10 lymph node (LN) metastasis, and establish a preoperative scoring system to predict No.10 LN metastasis. METHOD: Between January 2011 and December 2014, we prospectively collected and retrospectively analyzed the data of 398 patients with upper-third gastric cancer (GC) who underwent laparoscopic spleen-preserving hilar lymph-node dissection (SHLND). We use the logistics regression analysis risk factors of No. 10 LN metastasis to establish and verify a scoring model. RESULT: Among the 398 patients examined, 38 patients had No. 10 LN metastasis, yielding a 9.6% transfer rate. The preoperative risk factor analysis for No. 10 LN metastasis in the modeling group showed that tumor size, preoperative T staging, and preoperative N staging are independent risk factors. To establish a scoring system, we divided the modeling group of patients into three levels: low risk, intermediate risk, and high risk. The No. 10 LN metastasis rates of the low risk, intermediate risk and high risk groups were 2.84%, 13.9% and 34.9% respectively, with statistically significant (P < 0.001). The value for the area under the ROC curve of the scoring system was 0.820, and there were no statistically significant differences between the observed and predicted incidence rates for No. 10 LN metastasis in the validation set (P > 0.05). CONCLUSION: The scoring system comprising the tumor size, preoperative T stage and N stage is a simple and effective method to predict the risk of No. 10 LN metastasis and to preoperatively select cases suitable for laparoscopic spleen-preserving SHLND.