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Future sea ice conditions and weather forecasts in the Arctic: Implications for Arctic shipping

The ability to forecast sea ice (both extent and thickness) and weather conditions are the major factors when it comes to safe marine transportation in the Arctic Ocean. This paper presents findings focusing on sea ice and weather prediction in the Arctic Ocean for navigation purposes, in particular...

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Autores principales: Gascard, Jean-Claude, Riemann-Campe, Kathrin, Gerdes, Rüdiger, Schyberg, Harald, Randriamampianina, Roger, Karcher, Michael, Zhang, Jinlun, Rafizadeh, Mehrad
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Springer Netherlands 2017
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5673867/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29080010
http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s13280-017-0951-5
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author Gascard, Jean-Claude
Riemann-Campe, Kathrin
Gerdes, Rüdiger
Schyberg, Harald
Randriamampianina, Roger
Karcher, Michael
Zhang, Jinlun
Rafizadeh, Mehrad
author_facet Gascard, Jean-Claude
Riemann-Campe, Kathrin
Gerdes, Rüdiger
Schyberg, Harald
Randriamampianina, Roger
Karcher, Michael
Zhang, Jinlun
Rafizadeh, Mehrad
author_sort Gascard, Jean-Claude
collection PubMed
description The ability to forecast sea ice (both extent and thickness) and weather conditions are the major factors when it comes to safe marine transportation in the Arctic Ocean. This paper presents findings focusing on sea ice and weather prediction in the Arctic Ocean for navigation purposes, in particular along the Northeast Passage. Based on comparison with the observed sea ice concentrations for validation, the best performing Earth system models from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) program (CMIP5—Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5) were selected to provide ranges of potential future sea ice conditions. Our results showed that, despite a general tendency toward less sea ice cover in summer, internal variability will still be large and shipping along the Northeast Passage might still be hampered by sea ice blocking narrow passages. This will make sea ice forecasts on shorter time and space scales and Arctic weather prediction even more important. ELECTRONIC SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL: The online version of this article (doi:10.1007/s13280-017-0951-5) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.
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spelling pubmed-56738672017-11-20 Future sea ice conditions and weather forecasts in the Arctic: Implications for Arctic shipping Gascard, Jean-Claude Riemann-Campe, Kathrin Gerdes, Rüdiger Schyberg, Harald Randriamampianina, Roger Karcher, Michael Zhang, Jinlun Rafizadeh, Mehrad Ambio Article The ability to forecast sea ice (both extent and thickness) and weather conditions are the major factors when it comes to safe marine transportation in the Arctic Ocean. This paper presents findings focusing on sea ice and weather prediction in the Arctic Ocean for navigation purposes, in particular along the Northeast Passage. Based on comparison with the observed sea ice concentrations for validation, the best performing Earth system models from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) program (CMIP5—Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5) were selected to provide ranges of potential future sea ice conditions. Our results showed that, despite a general tendency toward less sea ice cover in summer, internal variability will still be large and shipping along the Northeast Passage might still be hampered by sea ice blocking narrow passages. This will make sea ice forecasts on shorter time and space scales and Arctic weather prediction even more important. ELECTRONIC SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL: The online version of this article (doi:10.1007/s13280-017-0951-5) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users. Springer Netherlands 2017-10-27 2017-12 /pmc/articles/PMC5673867/ /pubmed/29080010 http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s13280-017-0951-5 Text en © The Author(s) 2017 Open AccessThis article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made.
spellingShingle Article
Gascard, Jean-Claude
Riemann-Campe, Kathrin
Gerdes, Rüdiger
Schyberg, Harald
Randriamampianina, Roger
Karcher, Michael
Zhang, Jinlun
Rafizadeh, Mehrad
Future sea ice conditions and weather forecasts in the Arctic: Implications for Arctic shipping
title Future sea ice conditions and weather forecasts in the Arctic: Implications for Arctic shipping
title_full Future sea ice conditions and weather forecasts in the Arctic: Implications for Arctic shipping
title_fullStr Future sea ice conditions and weather forecasts in the Arctic: Implications for Arctic shipping
title_full_unstemmed Future sea ice conditions and weather forecasts in the Arctic: Implications for Arctic shipping
title_short Future sea ice conditions and weather forecasts in the Arctic: Implications for Arctic shipping
title_sort future sea ice conditions and weather forecasts in the arctic: implications for arctic shipping
topic Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5673867/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29080010
http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s13280-017-0951-5
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