Improving the Prediction of Cardiac Surgery–Associated Acute Kidney Injury

INTRODUCTION: Acute kidney injury (AKI) is a potentially fatal complication of cardiac surgery. The inability to predict cardiac surgery-associated AKI is a major barrier to prevention and early treatment. Current clinical risk models for the prediction of cardiac surgery-associated AKI are insufficient, particularly in patients with preexisting kidney dysfunction. METHODS: To identify intraoperative variables that might improve the performance of a validated clinical risk score (Cleveland Clinic Score, CCS) for the prediction of cardiac surgery-associated AKI, we conducted a prospective cohort study in 289 consecutive elective cardiac surgery patients at a tertiary care center. We compared the area under the receiver operator characteristic curve (AUC) of a base model including only the CCS with models containing additional selected intraoperative variables including mean arterial pressure, hematocrit, duration of procedure, blood transfusions, and fluid balance. AKI was defined by the Kidney Disease Improving Global Outcomes 2012 criteria. RESULTS: The CCS alone gave an AUC of 0.72 (95% confidence interval, 0.62–0.82) for postoperative AKI. Nadir intraoperative hematocrit was the only variable that improved AUC for postoperative AKI when added to the CCS (AUC = 0.78; 95% confidence interval, 0.70–0.87; P = 0.002). In the subcohort of patients without preexisting chronic kidney disease (n = 214), where the CCS underperformed (AUC, 0.60 [0.43–0.76]), the improvement with the addition of nadir hematocrit was more marked (AUC, 0.74 [0.62–0.86]). Other variables did not improve discrimination. DISCUSSION: Nadir intraoperative hematocrit is useful in improving discrimination of clinical risk scores for AKI, and may provide a target for intervention.