Improving precision of glomerular filtration rate estimating model by ensemble learning

BACKGROUND: Accurate assessment of kidney function is clinically important, but estimates of glomerular filtration rate (GFR) by regression are imprecise. METHODS: We hypothesized that ensemble learning could improve precision. A total of 1419 participants were enrolled, with 1002 in the development dataset and 417 in the external validation dataset. GFR was independently estimated from age, sex and serum creatinine using an artificial neural network (ANN), support vector machine (SVM), regression, and ensemble learning. GFR was measured by 99mTc-DTPA renal dynamic imaging calibrated with dual plasma sample 99mTc-DTPA GFR. RESULTS: Mean measured GFRs were 70.0 ml/min/1.73 m(2) in the developmental and 53.4 ml/min/1.73 m(2) in the external validation cohorts. In the external validation cohort, precision was better in the ensemble model of the ANN, SVM and regression equation (IQR = 13.5 ml/min/1.73 m(2)) than in the new regression model (IQR = 14.0 ml/min/1.73 m(2), P < 0.001). The precision of ensemble learning was the best of the three models, but the models had similar bias and accuracy. The median difference ranged from 2.3 to 3.7 ml/min/1.73 m(2), 30% accuracy ranged from 73.1 to 76.0%, and P was > 0.05 for all comparisons of the new regression equation and the other new models. CONCLUSIONS: An ensemble learning model including three variables, the average ANN, SVM, and regression equation values, was more precise than the new regression model. A more complex ensemble learning strategy may further improve GFR estimates. ELECTRONIC SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL: The online version of this article (10.1186/s12967-017-1337-y) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.