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Study on the characteristics of future precipitation in response to external changes over arid and humid basins
The simulation abilities of the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models to the arid basin (the Tarim River Basin, TRB) and humid basin (the Yangtze River Basin, YRB) were evaluated, determining the response of precipitation to external changes over typical basins. Our study sho...
Autores principales: | , , , , , , |
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Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
Nature Publishing Group UK
2017
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Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5680305/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29123164 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-017-15511-5 |
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author | Xue, Lianqing Zhu, Boli Yang, Changbing Wei, Guanghui Meng, Xianyong Long, Aihua Yang, Guang |
author_facet | Xue, Lianqing Zhu, Boli Yang, Changbing Wei, Guanghui Meng, Xianyong Long, Aihua Yang, Guang |
author_sort | Xue, Lianqing |
collection | PubMed |
description | The simulation abilities of the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models to the arid basin (the Tarim River Basin, TRB) and humid basin (the Yangtze River Basin, YRB) were evaluated, determining the response of precipitation to external changes over typical basins. Our study shows that the future temporal and spatial variation characteristics of precipitation are different in different regions with the CMIP5. The annual and seasonal changes in precipitation were analyzed for the RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 during 2021~2100 compared to those during 1961~2005. Precipitation shows an increasing trend in the TRB, but which decreases and then increases in the YRB, with a turning point in the middle of twenty-first Century. The ranges in annual precipitation increase with the increase in the scenario emissions in the future. Note that the Tarim River Basin is more vulnerable to the impact of emissions, especially for annual or spring and winter precipitation. Based on the uncertainty of CMIP5 data, the links between future precipitation changes and the elevation and relief amplitude were evaluated. The change of precipitation decreases with elevation, relief amplitude in the TRB, while it increases with elevation but decreases with relief amplitude in the YRB. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-5680305 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2017 |
publisher | Nature Publishing Group UK |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-56803052017-11-17 Study on the characteristics of future precipitation in response to external changes over arid and humid basins Xue, Lianqing Zhu, Boli Yang, Changbing Wei, Guanghui Meng, Xianyong Long, Aihua Yang, Guang Sci Rep Article The simulation abilities of the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models to the arid basin (the Tarim River Basin, TRB) and humid basin (the Yangtze River Basin, YRB) were evaluated, determining the response of precipitation to external changes over typical basins. Our study shows that the future temporal and spatial variation characteristics of precipitation are different in different regions with the CMIP5. The annual and seasonal changes in precipitation were analyzed for the RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 during 2021~2100 compared to those during 1961~2005. Precipitation shows an increasing trend in the TRB, but which decreases and then increases in the YRB, with a turning point in the middle of twenty-first Century. The ranges in annual precipitation increase with the increase in the scenario emissions in the future. Note that the Tarim River Basin is more vulnerable to the impact of emissions, especially for annual or spring and winter precipitation. Based on the uncertainty of CMIP5 data, the links between future precipitation changes and the elevation and relief amplitude were evaluated. The change of precipitation decreases with elevation, relief amplitude in the TRB, while it increases with elevation but decreases with relief amplitude in the YRB. Nature Publishing Group UK 2017-11-09 /pmc/articles/PMC5680305/ /pubmed/29123164 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-017-15511-5 Text en © The Author(s) 2017 Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/. |
spellingShingle | Article Xue, Lianqing Zhu, Boli Yang, Changbing Wei, Guanghui Meng, Xianyong Long, Aihua Yang, Guang Study on the characteristics of future precipitation in response to external changes over arid and humid basins |
title | Study on the characteristics of future precipitation in response to external changes over arid and humid basins |
title_full | Study on the characteristics of future precipitation in response to external changes over arid and humid basins |
title_fullStr | Study on the characteristics of future precipitation in response to external changes over arid and humid basins |
title_full_unstemmed | Study on the characteristics of future precipitation in response to external changes over arid and humid basins |
title_short | Study on the characteristics of future precipitation in response to external changes over arid and humid basins |
title_sort | study on the characteristics of future precipitation in response to external changes over arid and humid basins |
topic | Article |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5680305/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29123164 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-017-15511-5 |
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