Surrogate endpoint for overall survival in assessment of adjuvant therapies after curative treatment for hepatocellular carcinoma: a re-analysis of meta-analyses of individual patients’ data

The gold standard endpoint to evaluate the effect of treatment for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is overall survival (OS), but it requires a longer follow-up period to observe. This study aimed to identify whether disease-free survival (DFS) could be used as a surrogate endpoint for OS to assess the efficacy of adjuvant therapies after curative treatment (surgical resection and ablation) for HCC patients. A systematic review was conducted to identify trials about curative treatment combined with or without adjuvant therapies (interferon, IFN; or transarterial chemoembolization, TACE) for HCC. Total of 2211 patients’ data from 17 trials were analyzed. At the individual study level, DFS was strongly correlated to OS (ρ = 0.988 and 0.930, 95% CI: 0.965–0.996 and 0.806–0.976 for the studies comparing Radiofrequency ablation (RFA) + TACE to RFA alone; and for the studies comparing curative treatment + IFN to curative treatment alone, respectively). At the trial level, the effects of treatment on DFS and OS were also strongly correlated to each other (R = 0.815 and 0.854, 95% CI: 0.536–0.934 and 0.621–0.948, respectively). In conclusion, DFS could be used as a potential surrogate endpoint for OS to assess the effect of adjuvant therapies after curative treatment for HCC.