Pneumonia mortality trends in all Brazilian geographical regions between 1996 and 2012

OBJECTIVE: To analyze the temporal trends in pneumonia mortality rates (standardized by age, using the 2010 population of Brazil as the standard) in all Brazilian geographical regions between 1996 and 2012. METHODS: This was an ecological time-series study examining secondary data from the Mortality Database maintained by the Information Technology Department of the Brazilian Unified Health Care System. Polynomial and joinpoint regression models, and corresponding 95% CIs, were used for trend analysis. RESULTS: The pneumonia mortality rates in the South, Southeast, and Central-West showed a decreasing behavior until 2000, followed by increases, whereas, in the North and Northeast, they showed increasing trends virtually throughout the period studied. There was variation in annual percent change in pneumonia mortality rates in all regions except the North. The Central-West had the greatest decrease in annual percent change between 1996 and 2000, followed by an increase of the same magnitude until 2005. The 80 years and over age group was the one most influencing the trend behavior of pneumonia mortality rates in all regions. CONCLUSIONS: In general, pneumonia mortality trends reversed, with an important increase occurring in the years after 2000.