Characterization and classification of lupus patients based on plasma thermograms

OBJECTIVE: Plasma thermograms (thermal stability profiles of blood plasma) are being utilized as a new diagnostic approach for clinical assessment. In this study, we investigated the ability of plasma thermograms to classify systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) patients versus non SLE controls using a sample of 300 SLE and 300 control subjects from the Lupus Family Registry and Repository. Additionally, we evaluated the heterogeneity of thermograms along age, sex, ethnicity, concurrent health conditions and SLE diagnostic criteria. METHODS: Thermograms were visualized graphically for important differences between covariates and summarized using various measures. A modified linear discriminant analysis was used to segregate SLE versus control subjects on the basis of the thermograms. Classification accuracy was measured based on multiple training/test splits of the data and compared to classification based on SLE serological markers. RESULTS: Median sensitivity, specificity, and overall accuracy based on classification using plasma thermograms was 86%, 83%, and 84% compared to 78%, 95%, and 86% based on a combination of five antibody tests. Combining thermogram and serology information together improved sensitivity from 78% to 86% and overall accuracy from 86% to 89% relative to serology alone. Predictive accuracy of thermograms for distinguishing SLE and osteoarthritis / rheumatoid arthritis patients was comparable. Both gender and anemia significantly interacted with disease status for plasma thermograms (p<0.001), with greater separation between SLE and control thermograms for females relative to males and for patients with anemia relative to patients without anemia. CONCLUSION: Plasma thermograms constitute an additional biomarker which may help improve diagnosis of SLE patients, particularly when coupled with standard diagnostic testing. Differences in thermograms according to patient sex, ethnicity, clinical and environmental factors are important considerations for application of thermograms in a clinical setting.