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New science of climate change impacts on agriculture implies higher social cost of carbon
Despite substantial advances in climate change impact research in recent years, the scientific basis for damage functions in economic models used to calculate the social cost of carbon (SCC) is either undocumented, difficult to trace, or based on a small number of dated studies. Here we present new...
Autores principales: | , , , |
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Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
Nature Publishing Group UK
2017
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Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5694765/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29151575 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41467-017-01792-x |
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author | Moore, Frances C. Baldos, Uris Hertel, Thomas Diaz, Delavane |
author_facet | Moore, Frances C. Baldos, Uris Hertel, Thomas Diaz, Delavane |
author_sort | Moore, Frances C. |
collection | PubMed |
description | Despite substantial advances in climate change impact research in recent years, the scientific basis for damage functions in economic models used to calculate the social cost of carbon (SCC) is either undocumented, difficult to trace, or based on a small number of dated studies. Here we present new damage functions based on the current scientific literature and introduce these into an integrated assessment model (IAM) in order to estimate a new SCC. We focus on the agricultural sector, use two methods for determining the yield impacts of warming, and the GTAP CGE model to calculate the economic consequences of yield shocks. These new damage functions reveal far more adverse agricultural impacts than currently represented in IAMs. Impacts in the agriculture increase from net benefits of $2.7 ton(−1) CO(2) to net costs of $8.5 ton(−1), leading the total SCC to more than double. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-5694765 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2017 |
publisher | Nature Publishing Group UK |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-56947652017-11-22 New science of climate change impacts on agriculture implies higher social cost of carbon Moore, Frances C. Baldos, Uris Hertel, Thomas Diaz, Delavane Nat Commun Article Despite substantial advances in climate change impact research in recent years, the scientific basis for damage functions in economic models used to calculate the social cost of carbon (SCC) is either undocumented, difficult to trace, or based on a small number of dated studies. Here we present new damage functions based on the current scientific literature and introduce these into an integrated assessment model (IAM) in order to estimate a new SCC. We focus on the agricultural sector, use two methods for determining the yield impacts of warming, and the GTAP CGE model to calculate the economic consequences of yield shocks. These new damage functions reveal far more adverse agricultural impacts than currently represented in IAMs. Impacts in the agriculture increase from net benefits of $2.7 ton(−1) CO(2) to net costs of $8.5 ton(−1), leading the total SCC to more than double. Nature Publishing Group UK 2017-11-20 /pmc/articles/PMC5694765/ /pubmed/29151575 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41467-017-01792-x Text en © The Author(s) 2017 Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/. |
spellingShingle | Article Moore, Frances C. Baldos, Uris Hertel, Thomas Diaz, Delavane New science of climate change impacts on agriculture implies higher social cost of carbon |
title | New science of climate change impacts on agriculture implies higher social cost of carbon |
title_full | New science of climate change impacts on agriculture implies higher social cost of carbon |
title_fullStr | New science of climate change impacts on agriculture implies higher social cost of carbon |
title_full_unstemmed | New science of climate change impacts on agriculture implies higher social cost of carbon |
title_short | New science of climate change impacts on agriculture implies higher social cost of carbon |
title_sort | new science of climate change impacts on agriculture implies higher social cost of carbon |
topic | Article |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5694765/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29151575 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41467-017-01792-x |
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