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Quantifying the role of modifiable risk factors in the differences in cardiovascular disease mortality rates between metropolitan and rural populations in Australia: a macrosimulation modelling study
OBJECTIVES: The study aimed (1) to quantify differences in modifiable risk factors between urban and rural populations, and (2) to determine the number of rural cardiovascular disease (CVD) and ischaemic heart disease (IHD) deaths that could be averted or delayed if risk factor levels in rural areas...
Autores principales: | , , , , |
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Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
BMJ Publishing Group
2017
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Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5695309/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29101149 http://dx.doi.org/10.1136/bmjopen-2017-018307 |
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author | Alston, Laura Peterson, Karen Louise Jacobs, Jane P Allender, Steven Nichols, Melanie |
author_facet | Alston, Laura Peterson, Karen Louise Jacobs, Jane P Allender, Steven Nichols, Melanie |
author_sort | Alston, Laura |
collection | PubMed |
description | OBJECTIVES: The study aimed (1) to quantify differences in modifiable risk factors between urban and rural populations, and (2) to determine the number of rural cardiovascular disease (CVD) and ischaemic heart disease (IHD) deaths that could be averted or delayed if risk factor levels in rural areas were equivalent to metropolitan areas. SETTING: National population estimates, risk factor prevalence, CVD and IHD deaths data were analysed by rurality using a macrosimulation Preventable Risk Integrated Model for chronic disease risk. Uncertainty analysis was conducted using a Monte Carlo simulation of 10 000 iterations to calculate 95% credible intervals (CIs). PARTICIPANTS: National data sets of men and women over the age of 18 years living in urban and rural Australia. RESULTS: If people living in rural Australia had the same levels of risk factors as those in metropolitan areas, approximately 1461 (95% CI 1107 to 1791) deaths could be delayed from CVD annually. Of these CVD deaths, 793 (95% CI 506 to 1065) would be from IHD. The IHD mortality gap between metropolitan and rural populations would be reduced by 38.2% (95% CI 24.4% to 50.6%). CONCLUSIONS: A significant portion of deaths from CVD and IHD could be averted with improvements in risk factors; more than one-third of the excess IHD deaths in rural Australia were attributed to differences in risk factors. As much as two-thirds of the increased IHD mortality rate in rural areas could not be accounted for by modifiable risk factors, however, and this requires further investigation. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-5695309 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2017 |
publisher | BMJ Publishing Group |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-56953092017-11-24 Quantifying the role of modifiable risk factors in the differences in cardiovascular disease mortality rates between metropolitan and rural populations in Australia: a macrosimulation modelling study Alston, Laura Peterson, Karen Louise Jacobs, Jane P Allender, Steven Nichols, Melanie BMJ Open Public Health OBJECTIVES: The study aimed (1) to quantify differences in modifiable risk factors between urban and rural populations, and (2) to determine the number of rural cardiovascular disease (CVD) and ischaemic heart disease (IHD) deaths that could be averted or delayed if risk factor levels in rural areas were equivalent to metropolitan areas. SETTING: National population estimates, risk factor prevalence, CVD and IHD deaths data were analysed by rurality using a macrosimulation Preventable Risk Integrated Model for chronic disease risk. Uncertainty analysis was conducted using a Monte Carlo simulation of 10 000 iterations to calculate 95% credible intervals (CIs). PARTICIPANTS: National data sets of men and women over the age of 18 years living in urban and rural Australia. RESULTS: If people living in rural Australia had the same levels of risk factors as those in metropolitan areas, approximately 1461 (95% CI 1107 to 1791) deaths could be delayed from CVD annually. Of these CVD deaths, 793 (95% CI 506 to 1065) would be from IHD. The IHD mortality gap between metropolitan and rural populations would be reduced by 38.2% (95% CI 24.4% to 50.6%). CONCLUSIONS: A significant portion of deaths from CVD and IHD could be averted with improvements in risk factors; more than one-third of the excess IHD deaths in rural Australia were attributed to differences in risk factors. As much as two-thirds of the increased IHD mortality rate in rural areas could not be accounted for by modifiable risk factors, however, and this requires further investigation. BMJ Publishing Group 2017-11-03 /pmc/articles/PMC5695309/ /pubmed/29101149 http://dx.doi.org/10.1136/bmjopen-2017-018307 Text en © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2017. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted. This is an Open Access article distributed in accordance with the Creative Commons Attribution Non Commercial (CC BY-NC 4.0) license, which permits others to distribute, remix, adapt, build upon this work non-commercially, and license their derivative works on different terms, provided the original work is properly cited and the use is non-commercial. See: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/ |
spellingShingle | Public Health Alston, Laura Peterson, Karen Louise Jacobs, Jane P Allender, Steven Nichols, Melanie Quantifying the role of modifiable risk factors in the differences in cardiovascular disease mortality rates between metropolitan and rural populations in Australia: a macrosimulation modelling study |
title | Quantifying the role of modifiable risk factors in the differences in cardiovascular disease mortality rates between metropolitan and rural populations in Australia: a macrosimulation modelling study |
title_full | Quantifying the role of modifiable risk factors in the differences in cardiovascular disease mortality rates between metropolitan and rural populations in Australia: a macrosimulation modelling study |
title_fullStr | Quantifying the role of modifiable risk factors in the differences in cardiovascular disease mortality rates between metropolitan and rural populations in Australia: a macrosimulation modelling study |
title_full_unstemmed | Quantifying the role of modifiable risk factors in the differences in cardiovascular disease mortality rates between metropolitan and rural populations in Australia: a macrosimulation modelling study |
title_short | Quantifying the role of modifiable risk factors in the differences in cardiovascular disease mortality rates between metropolitan and rural populations in Australia: a macrosimulation modelling study |
title_sort | quantifying the role of modifiable risk factors in the differences in cardiovascular disease mortality rates between metropolitan and rural populations in australia: a macrosimulation modelling study |
topic | Public Health |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5695309/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29101149 http://dx.doi.org/10.1136/bmjopen-2017-018307 |
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