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Prediction model of hepatocellular carcinoma risk in Asian patients with chronic hepatitis B treated with entecavir
BACKGROUND: Until now, no risk score could predict hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in nucleos(t)ide analog (NA)-treated Asian patients. METHODS: We enrolled 1325 NA-naïve chronic hepatitis B patients with entecavir monotherapy for >12 months, with 883 and 442 patients randomly assigned to the deve...
Autores principales: | , , , , , , , , , , |
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Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
Impact Journals LLC
2017
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Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5696194/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29190928 http://dx.doi.org/10.18632/oncotarget.21369 |
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author | Chen, Chien-Hung Lee, Chuan-Mo Lai, Hsueh-Chou Hu, Tsung-Hui Su, Wen-Pang Lu, Sheng-Nan Lin, Chia-Hsin Hung, Chao-Hung Wang, Jing-Houng Lee, Mei-Hsuan Peng, Cheng-Yuan |
author_facet | Chen, Chien-Hung Lee, Chuan-Mo Lai, Hsueh-Chou Hu, Tsung-Hui Su, Wen-Pang Lu, Sheng-Nan Lin, Chia-Hsin Hung, Chao-Hung Wang, Jing-Houng Lee, Mei-Hsuan Peng, Cheng-Yuan |
author_sort | Chen, Chien-Hung |
collection | PubMed |
description | BACKGROUND: Until now, no risk score could predict hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in nucleos(t)ide analog (NA)-treated Asian patients. METHODS: We enrolled 1325 NA-naïve chronic hepatitis B patients with entecavir monotherapy for >12 months, with 883 and 442 patients randomly assigned to the development and validation groups, respectively, in the risk model. RESULTS: The cumulative probabilities of HCC were 2.4%, 4.1%, and 9.9% after 2, 3, and 5 years of treatment, respectively. In the development group, age, platelet counts, and alpha-fetoprotein levels after 12 months of treatment were the independent predictors of HCC. We converted the Cox proportional hazards regression coefficients for these predictors into risk scores and developed the APA-B model, with the total risk scores ranging from 0 to 15. The risk scores accurately categorized patients with low (0–5), medium (6–9), and high (10–15) risks in the validation group (P <0.001). The areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve for predicting HCC risk after 2, 3, and 5 years were 0.877, 0.842, and 0.827, respectively, in the development group and 0.939, 0.892, and 0.862, respectively, in the validation group. CONCLUSION: The proposed HCC risk prediction model exhibited excellent predictive accuracy in NA-naïve Asian patients receiving entecavir therapy. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-5696194 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2017 |
publisher | Impact Journals LLC |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-56961942017-11-29 Prediction model of hepatocellular carcinoma risk in Asian patients with chronic hepatitis B treated with entecavir Chen, Chien-Hung Lee, Chuan-Mo Lai, Hsueh-Chou Hu, Tsung-Hui Su, Wen-Pang Lu, Sheng-Nan Lin, Chia-Hsin Hung, Chao-Hung Wang, Jing-Houng Lee, Mei-Hsuan Peng, Cheng-Yuan Oncotarget Research Paper BACKGROUND: Until now, no risk score could predict hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in nucleos(t)ide analog (NA)-treated Asian patients. METHODS: We enrolled 1325 NA-naïve chronic hepatitis B patients with entecavir monotherapy for >12 months, with 883 and 442 patients randomly assigned to the development and validation groups, respectively, in the risk model. RESULTS: The cumulative probabilities of HCC were 2.4%, 4.1%, and 9.9% after 2, 3, and 5 years of treatment, respectively. In the development group, age, platelet counts, and alpha-fetoprotein levels after 12 months of treatment were the independent predictors of HCC. We converted the Cox proportional hazards regression coefficients for these predictors into risk scores and developed the APA-B model, with the total risk scores ranging from 0 to 15. The risk scores accurately categorized patients with low (0–5), medium (6–9), and high (10–15) risks in the validation group (P <0.001). The areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve for predicting HCC risk after 2, 3, and 5 years were 0.877, 0.842, and 0.827, respectively, in the development group and 0.939, 0.892, and 0.862, respectively, in the validation group. CONCLUSION: The proposed HCC risk prediction model exhibited excellent predictive accuracy in NA-naïve Asian patients receiving entecavir therapy. Impact Journals LLC 2017-09-28 /pmc/articles/PMC5696194/ /pubmed/29190928 http://dx.doi.org/10.18632/oncotarget.21369 Text en Copyright: © 2017 Chen et al. http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/ This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/) (CC-BY), which permits unrestricted use and redistribution provided that the original author and source are credited. |
spellingShingle | Research Paper Chen, Chien-Hung Lee, Chuan-Mo Lai, Hsueh-Chou Hu, Tsung-Hui Su, Wen-Pang Lu, Sheng-Nan Lin, Chia-Hsin Hung, Chao-Hung Wang, Jing-Houng Lee, Mei-Hsuan Peng, Cheng-Yuan Prediction model of hepatocellular carcinoma risk in Asian patients with chronic hepatitis B treated with entecavir |
title | Prediction model of hepatocellular carcinoma risk in Asian patients with chronic hepatitis B treated with entecavir |
title_full | Prediction model of hepatocellular carcinoma risk in Asian patients with chronic hepatitis B treated with entecavir |
title_fullStr | Prediction model of hepatocellular carcinoma risk in Asian patients with chronic hepatitis B treated with entecavir |
title_full_unstemmed | Prediction model of hepatocellular carcinoma risk in Asian patients with chronic hepatitis B treated with entecavir |
title_short | Prediction model of hepatocellular carcinoma risk in Asian patients with chronic hepatitis B treated with entecavir |
title_sort | prediction model of hepatocellular carcinoma risk in asian patients with chronic hepatitis b treated with entecavir |
topic | Research Paper |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5696194/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29190928 http://dx.doi.org/10.18632/oncotarget.21369 |
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