Cancer mortality trends in an industrial district of Shanghai, China, from 1974 to 2014, and projections to 2029

We aimed to characterize the trends and projections of cancer mortalities in Yangpu, an industry restructuring district of Shanghai, China. With high-quality data from the death registration system, the authors analyzed the trends in cancer mortalities during 1974-2014 and their relationship with pollution control and socioeconomic improvements. Cancer burden was projected into 2029. During 1974-2014, cancer death accounted for 28.80% of all-cause death. The 5 leading causes of cancer death were cancers of the lung & bronchus, stomach, liver, colon & rectum, and esophagus. Age-standardized mortality of all cancers was higher in men than in women (153.1/10(5) vs. 88.8/10(5), p<0.001) and increased from 1974 to 1991 and decreased thereafter. The mortalities of cancers of the larynx, bladder, liver, nasopharynx, lung & bronchus, esophagus, lip oral & pharynx, stomach, kidney, and lymphoma were significantly higher in men than in women. Age-standardized mortalities of cancers of the esophagus, stomach, leukemia, female nasopharynx, female bladder, liver, and bone decreased especially after the 1990s, those of the colon & rectum, kidney, prostate, pancreas, breast, gallbladder, and ovary increased significantly. Lung cancer, breast cancer, colorectal cancer, and pancreas cancer in women and lung cancer, colorectal cancer, prostate cancer, and stomach cancer in men will be the leading causes of cancer death in 2025-2029. Cancer-caused life loss kept increasing since 2000. Conclusively, cancers associated with pollutions and infection decreased, especially after the 1990s, while those related to metabolic syndrome increased. These trends are related to closedown of polluted industries in the 1980s and lifestyle changes.