Prediction of hepatocellular carcinoma development by aminotransferase to platelet ratio index in primary biliary cholangitis

AIM: To investigate the usefulness of aspartate aminotransferase to platelet ratio index (APRI) in predicting hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) risk in primary biliary cholangitis (PBC). METHODS: We identified PBC patients between 2000 and 2015 by searching the electronic medical database of a tertiary center. The hazard ratio (HR) of HCC with different risk factors was determined by Cox proportional hazards model. RESULTS: One hundred and forty-four PBC patients were recruited. Patients were diagnosed at a median age of 57.8 years [interquartile range (IQR): 48.7-71.5 years), and 41 (28.5%) patients had cirrhosis at baseline. The median follow-up duration was 6.9 years (range: 1.0-26.3 years). Twelve patients developed HCC, with an incidence rate of 10.6 cases per 1000 patient-years. The overall 5-, 10- and 15-year cumulative incidences of HCC were 2.3% 95%CI: 0%-4.8%), 8.4% (95%CI: 1.8%-14.5%) and 21.6% (6.8%-34.1%), respectively. Older age (HR = 1.07), cirrhosis (HR = 4.38) and APRI at 1 year after treatment (APRI-r1) > 0.54 (HR = 3.94) were independent factors for HCC development. APRI-r1, when combined with treatment response, further stratified HCC risk (log rank P < 0.05). The area under receiver operating curve of APRI-r1 in predicting HCC was 0.77 (95%CI: 0.64-0.88). CONCLUSION: APRI-r1 can be used to predict the development of HCC in PBC patients. Combination of APRI-r1 with treatment response can further stratify the HCC risk.