Effects of Mutations on Replicative Fitness and Major Histocompatibility Complex Class I Binding Affinity Are Among the Determinants Underlying Cytotoxic-T-Lymphocyte Escape of HIV-1 Gag Epitopes

Certain “protective” major histocompatibility complex class I (MHC-I) alleles, such as B*57 and B*27, are associated with long-term control of HIV-1 in vivo mediated by the CD8(+) cytotoxic-T-lymphocyte (CTL) response. However, the mechanism of such superior protection is not fully understood. Here we combined high-throughput fitness profiling of mutations in HIV-1 Gag, in silico prediction of MHC-peptide binding affinity, and analysis of intraperson virus evolution to systematically compare differences with respect to CTL escape mutations between epitopes targeted by protective MHC-I alleles and those targeted by nonprotective MHC-I alleles. We observed that the effects of mutations on both viral replication and MHC-I binding affinity are among the determinants of CTL escape. Mutations in Gag epitopes presented by protective MHC-I alleles are associated with significantly higher fitness cost and lower reductions in binding affinity with respect to MHC-I. A linear regression model accounting for the effect of mutations on both viral replicative capacity and MHC-I binding can explain the protective efficacy of MHC-I alleles. Finally, we found a consistent pattern in the evolution of Gag epitopes in long-term nonprogressors versus progressors. Overall, our results suggest that certain protective MHC-I alleles allow superior control of HIV-1 by targeting epitopes where mutations typically incur high fitness costs and small reductions in MHC-I binding affinity.