A nomogram to predict HER2 status in breast cancer patients with HER2-borderline disease as determined via immunohistochemistry

This study aimed to develop a nomogram to predict fluorescence in situ hybridization (FISH) assay results for HER2-borderline breast cancer as determined via immunohistochemistry (IHC) among patients in China. We reviewed a database of breast cancer patients diagnosed between January 2007 and April 2013 at our institutions. We used logistic regression to develop a nomogram and we used receiver operating characteristic curve analysis and calibration plots to validate our nomogram. In total, 1138, 301 and 344 patients had IHC-determined HER2-negative, HER2-borderline and HER2-positive disease, respectively. Within the training cohort, univariate and multivariate analyses suggested that estrogen receptor (ER) status, progesterone receptor (PR) status and tumor grade were significantly associated with HER2 status (P<0.01). A nomogram was developed and the AUCs for the training and validation cohorts were 0.795 and 0.749, respectively. The calibration plots suggested that the model was well calibrated. This new nomogram can be used to predict HER2 status in HER2-borderline breast cancer patients and will be particularly helpful to resource-limited countries.