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Estimation and Evaluation of Future Demand and Supply of Healthcare Services Based on a Patient Access Area Model
Accessibility to healthcare service providers, the quantity, and the quality of them are important for national health. In this study, we focused on geographic accessibility to estimate and evaluate future demand and supply of healthcare services. We constructed a simulation model called the patient...
Autores principales: | , , , , |
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Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
MDPI
2017
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Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5708006/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29125585 http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/ijerph14111367 |
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author | Doi, Shunsuke Ide, Hiroo Takeuchi, Koichi Fujita, Shinsuke Takabayashi, Katsuhiko |
author_facet | Doi, Shunsuke Ide, Hiroo Takeuchi, Koichi Fujita, Shinsuke Takabayashi, Katsuhiko |
author_sort | Doi, Shunsuke |
collection | PubMed |
description | Accessibility to healthcare service providers, the quantity, and the quality of them are important for national health. In this study, we focused on geographic accessibility to estimate and evaluate future demand and supply of healthcare services. We constructed a simulation model called the patient access area model (PAAM), which simulates patients’ access time to healthcare service institutions using a geographic information system (GIS). Using this model, to evaluate the balance of future healthcare services demand and supply in small areas, we estimated the number of inpatients every five years in each area and compared it with the number of hospital beds within a one-hour drive from each area. In an experiment with the Tokyo metropolitan area as a target area, when we assumed hospital bed availability to be 80%, it was predicted that over 78,000 inpatients would not receive inpatient care in 2030. However, this number would decrease if we lowered the rate of inpatient care by 10% and the average length of the hospital stay. Using this model, recommendations can be made regarding what action should be undertaken and by when to prevent a dramatic increase in healthcare demand. This method can help plan the geographical resource allocation in healthcare services for healthcare policy. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-5708006 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2017 |
publisher | MDPI |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-57080062017-12-05 Estimation and Evaluation of Future Demand and Supply of Healthcare Services Based on a Patient Access Area Model Doi, Shunsuke Ide, Hiroo Takeuchi, Koichi Fujita, Shinsuke Takabayashi, Katsuhiko Int J Environ Res Public Health Article Accessibility to healthcare service providers, the quantity, and the quality of them are important for national health. In this study, we focused on geographic accessibility to estimate and evaluate future demand and supply of healthcare services. We constructed a simulation model called the patient access area model (PAAM), which simulates patients’ access time to healthcare service institutions using a geographic information system (GIS). Using this model, to evaluate the balance of future healthcare services demand and supply in small areas, we estimated the number of inpatients every five years in each area and compared it with the number of hospital beds within a one-hour drive from each area. In an experiment with the Tokyo metropolitan area as a target area, when we assumed hospital bed availability to be 80%, it was predicted that over 78,000 inpatients would not receive inpatient care in 2030. However, this number would decrease if we lowered the rate of inpatient care by 10% and the average length of the hospital stay. Using this model, recommendations can be made regarding what action should be undertaken and by when to prevent a dramatic increase in healthcare demand. This method can help plan the geographical resource allocation in healthcare services for healthcare policy. MDPI 2017-11-10 2017-11 /pmc/articles/PMC5708006/ /pubmed/29125585 http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/ijerph14111367 Text en © 2017 by the authors. Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). |
spellingShingle | Article Doi, Shunsuke Ide, Hiroo Takeuchi, Koichi Fujita, Shinsuke Takabayashi, Katsuhiko Estimation and Evaluation of Future Demand and Supply of Healthcare Services Based on a Patient Access Area Model |
title | Estimation and Evaluation of Future Demand and Supply of Healthcare Services Based on a Patient Access Area Model |
title_full | Estimation and Evaluation of Future Demand and Supply of Healthcare Services Based on a Patient Access Area Model |
title_fullStr | Estimation and Evaluation of Future Demand and Supply of Healthcare Services Based on a Patient Access Area Model |
title_full_unstemmed | Estimation and Evaluation of Future Demand and Supply of Healthcare Services Based on a Patient Access Area Model |
title_short | Estimation and Evaluation of Future Demand and Supply of Healthcare Services Based on a Patient Access Area Model |
title_sort | estimation and evaluation of future demand and supply of healthcare services based on a patient access area model |
topic | Article |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5708006/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29125585 http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/ijerph14111367 |
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