Cargando…

Estimation and Evaluation of Future Demand and Supply of Healthcare Services Based on a Patient Access Area Model

Accessibility to healthcare service providers, the quantity, and the quality of them are important for national health. In this study, we focused on geographic accessibility to estimate and evaluate future demand and supply of healthcare services. We constructed a simulation model called the patient...

Descripción completa

Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales: Doi, Shunsuke, Ide, Hiroo, Takeuchi, Koichi, Fujita, Shinsuke, Takabayashi, Katsuhiko
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: MDPI 2017
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5708006/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29125585
http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/ijerph14111367
_version_ 1783282565069668352
author Doi, Shunsuke
Ide, Hiroo
Takeuchi, Koichi
Fujita, Shinsuke
Takabayashi, Katsuhiko
author_facet Doi, Shunsuke
Ide, Hiroo
Takeuchi, Koichi
Fujita, Shinsuke
Takabayashi, Katsuhiko
author_sort Doi, Shunsuke
collection PubMed
description Accessibility to healthcare service providers, the quantity, and the quality of them are important for national health. In this study, we focused on geographic accessibility to estimate and evaluate future demand and supply of healthcare services. We constructed a simulation model called the patient access area model (PAAM), which simulates patients’ access time to healthcare service institutions using a geographic information system (GIS). Using this model, to evaluate the balance of future healthcare services demand and supply in small areas, we estimated the number of inpatients every five years in each area and compared it with the number of hospital beds within a one-hour drive from each area. In an experiment with the Tokyo metropolitan area as a target area, when we assumed hospital bed availability to be 80%, it was predicted that over 78,000 inpatients would not receive inpatient care in 2030. However, this number would decrease if we lowered the rate of inpatient care by 10% and the average length of the hospital stay. Using this model, recommendations can be made regarding what action should be undertaken and by when to prevent a dramatic increase in healthcare demand. This method can help plan the geographical resource allocation in healthcare services for healthcare policy.
format Online
Article
Text
id pubmed-5708006
institution National Center for Biotechnology Information
language English
publishDate 2017
publisher MDPI
record_format MEDLINE/PubMed
spelling pubmed-57080062017-12-05 Estimation and Evaluation of Future Demand and Supply of Healthcare Services Based on a Patient Access Area Model Doi, Shunsuke Ide, Hiroo Takeuchi, Koichi Fujita, Shinsuke Takabayashi, Katsuhiko Int J Environ Res Public Health Article Accessibility to healthcare service providers, the quantity, and the quality of them are important for national health. In this study, we focused on geographic accessibility to estimate and evaluate future demand and supply of healthcare services. We constructed a simulation model called the patient access area model (PAAM), which simulates patients’ access time to healthcare service institutions using a geographic information system (GIS). Using this model, to evaluate the balance of future healthcare services demand and supply in small areas, we estimated the number of inpatients every five years in each area and compared it with the number of hospital beds within a one-hour drive from each area. In an experiment with the Tokyo metropolitan area as a target area, when we assumed hospital bed availability to be 80%, it was predicted that over 78,000 inpatients would not receive inpatient care in 2030. However, this number would decrease if we lowered the rate of inpatient care by 10% and the average length of the hospital stay. Using this model, recommendations can be made regarding what action should be undertaken and by when to prevent a dramatic increase in healthcare demand. This method can help plan the geographical resource allocation in healthcare services for healthcare policy. MDPI 2017-11-10 2017-11 /pmc/articles/PMC5708006/ /pubmed/29125585 http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/ijerph14111367 Text en © 2017 by the authors. Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
spellingShingle Article
Doi, Shunsuke
Ide, Hiroo
Takeuchi, Koichi
Fujita, Shinsuke
Takabayashi, Katsuhiko
Estimation and Evaluation of Future Demand and Supply of Healthcare Services Based on a Patient Access Area Model
title Estimation and Evaluation of Future Demand and Supply of Healthcare Services Based on a Patient Access Area Model
title_full Estimation and Evaluation of Future Demand and Supply of Healthcare Services Based on a Patient Access Area Model
title_fullStr Estimation and Evaluation of Future Demand and Supply of Healthcare Services Based on a Patient Access Area Model
title_full_unstemmed Estimation and Evaluation of Future Demand and Supply of Healthcare Services Based on a Patient Access Area Model
title_short Estimation and Evaluation of Future Demand and Supply of Healthcare Services Based on a Patient Access Area Model
title_sort estimation and evaluation of future demand and supply of healthcare services based on a patient access area model
topic Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5708006/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29125585
http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/ijerph14111367
work_keys_str_mv AT doishunsuke estimationandevaluationoffuturedemandandsupplyofhealthcareservicesbasedonapatientaccessareamodel
AT idehiroo estimationandevaluationoffuturedemandandsupplyofhealthcareservicesbasedonapatientaccessareamodel
AT takeuchikoichi estimationandevaluationoffuturedemandandsupplyofhealthcareservicesbasedonapatientaccessareamodel
AT fujitashinsuke estimationandevaluationoffuturedemandandsupplyofhealthcareservicesbasedonapatientaccessareamodel
AT takabayashikatsuhiko estimationandevaluationoffuturedemandandsupplyofhealthcareservicesbasedonapatientaccessareamodel