Risk factors for joint replacement in knee osteoarthritis; a 15-year follow-up study

BACKGROUND: To evaluate whether clinical, radiographic or MRI findings are associated with long term risk for total knee arthroplasty (TKA) in persons with knee osteoarthritis. METHODS: We performed a follow-up analysis of 100 persons with knee osteoarthritis who participated in a clinical trial between 2000 and 2002. Clinical data as well as radiography and MRI of the inclusion knee were obtained in all participants. Data on TKA procedures were extracted from The Danish National Patient Register. Clinical, radiographic and MRI findings were analyzed for associations with subsequent TKA. RESULTS: During a mean follow-up period of 15 years, 66% received a TKA in the included knee (target knee); 37% also received a TKA in the other knee. The degree of joint space narrowing was highly associated with subsequent TKA (adjusted odds ratio (OR) 5.0 (95% confidence interval (95% CI) 2.6 – 9.9)) as was a radiological sum score comprising joint space narrowing, osteophytes, subchondral sclerosis and cysts (adjusted OR 1.7 (95% CI 1.3 – 2.1)). MRI detected bone marrow lesions, synovitis and effusion were similarly associated with subsequent TKA with an adjusted OR of 2.3 (95% CI 1.3 – 4.0), 2.8 (95% CI 1.5 – 5.2) and 1.9 (95% CI 1.2 – 3.1), respectively. Increased body mass index (BMI) was not associated with subsequent TKA in the target knee but was associated with TKA in the other knee (OR 2.3 (95% CI 1.2 – 4.3). CONCLUSIONS: Radiographic findings including joint space narrowing and MRI detected bone marrow lesions, synovitis and effusion were all significantly associated with the long term risk of TKA in persons with knee osteoarthritis. ELECTRONIC SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL: The online version of this article (10.1186/s12891-017-1871-z) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.