Prediction of progression of damage to articular cartilage 2 years after anterior cruciate ligament reconstruction: use of aggrecan and type II collagen biomarkers in a retrospective observational study

BACKGROUND: We aimed to determine whether synovial fluid (SF) biomarkers can predict the progression of articular cartilage damage as determined by arthroscopic evaluation during and after anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) reconstruction. METHODS: Arthroscopic assessment of articular cartilage damage was performed twice in 62 patients, first during ACL reconstruction and then approximately 2 years later during implant removal for ligament fixation. SF levels of the collagenase-generated cleavage neoepitope of type II collagen (C2C) and proteoglycan glycosaminoglycans keratan sulfate (KS), chondroitin-4-sulfate (Δdi-C4S), and chondroitin-6-sulfate (Δdi-C6S) were measured at ACL reconstruction. Associations between baseline biomarker levels and subsequent progression of cartilage damage were determined using receiver operating characteristic analysis and multivariable logistic regression analysis. RESULTS: No radiographic changes were observed in any of the patients. Progression of high-grade cartilage damage, observed arthroscopically, was negatively correlated with levels of Δdi-C6S and KS, as well as the ratio of Δdi-C6S to Δdi-C4S (C6S/C4S). Logistic regression analysis revealed significant associations of Δdi-C6S (cut-off: 55.7 nmol/ml, odds ratio (OR) 0.231, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.061–0.879), KS (cut-off: 10.6 μg/ml, OR 0.114, 95% CI 0.024–0.529), and C6S/C4S ratio (cut-off: 4.6, OR 0.060, 95% CI 0.005–0.737) with the progression of high-grade cartilage damage after adjusting for age, the duration from injury to first surgery, sex, and the number of high-grade lesions (grades III and IV) at baseline. CONCLUSIONS: The progression of high-grade cartilage damage was significantly associated with baseline levels of proteoglycan glycosaminoglycan biomarkers; namely, Δdi-C6S, KS, and C6S/C4S ratio. ELECTRONIC SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL: The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s13075-017-1471-1) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.