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Forecasting success via early adoptions analysis: A data-driven study

Innovations are continuously launched over markets, such as new products over the retail market or new artists over the music scene. Some innovations become a success; others don’t. Forecasting which innovations will succeed at the beginning of their lifecycle is hard. In this paper, we provide a da...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales: Rossetti, Giulio, Milli, Letizia, Giannotti, Fosca, Pedreschi, Dino
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Public Library of Science 2017
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5720712/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29216255
http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0189096
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author Rossetti, Giulio
Milli, Letizia
Giannotti, Fosca
Pedreschi, Dino
author_facet Rossetti, Giulio
Milli, Letizia
Giannotti, Fosca
Pedreschi, Dino
author_sort Rossetti, Giulio
collection PubMed
description Innovations are continuously launched over markets, such as new products over the retail market or new artists over the music scene. Some innovations become a success; others don’t. Forecasting which innovations will succeed at the beginning of their lifecycle is hard. In this paper, we provide a data-driven, large-scale account of the existence of a special niche among early adopters, individuals that consistently tend to adopt successful innovations before they reach success: we will call them Hit-Savvy. Hit-Savvy can be discovered in very different markets and retain over time their ability to anticipate the success of innovations. As our second contribution, we devise a predictive analytical process, exploiting Hit-Savvy as signals, which achieves high accuracy in the early-stage prediction of successful innovations, far beyond the reach of state-of-the-art time series forecasting models. Indeed, our findings and predictive model can be fruitfully used to support marketing strategies and product placement.
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spelling pubmed-57207122017-12-15 Forecasting success via early adoptions analysis: A data-driven study Rossetti, Giulio Milli, Letizia Giannotti, Fosca Pedreschi, Dino PLoS One Research Article Innovations are continuously launched over markets, such as new products over the retail market or new artists over the music scene. Some innovations become a success; others don’t. Forecasting which innovations will succeed at the beginning of their lifecycle is hard. In this paper, we provide a data-driven, large-scale account of the existence of a special niche among early adopters, individuals that consistently tend to adopt successful innovations before they reach success: we will call them Hit-Savvy. Hit-Savvy can be discovered in very different markets and retain over time their ability to anticipate the success of innovations. As our second contribution, we devise a predictive analytical process, exploiting Hit-Savvy as signals, which achieves high accuracy in the early-stage prediction of successful innovations, far beyond the reach of state-of-the-art time series forecasting models. Indeed, our findings and predictive model can be fruitfully used to support marketing strategies and product placement. Public Library of Science 2017-12-07 /pmc/articles/PMC5720712/ /pubmed/29216255 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0189096 Text en © 2017 Rossetti et al http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) , which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.
spellingShingle Research Article
Rossetti, Giulio
Milli, Letizia
Giannotti, Fosca
Pedreschi, Dino
Forecasting success via early adoptions analysis: A data-driven study
title Forecasting success via early adoptions analysis: A data-driven study
title_full Forecasting success via early adoptions analysis: A data-driven study
title_fullStr Forecasting success via early adoptions analysis: A data-driven study
title_full_unstemmed Forecasting success via early adoptions analysis: A data-driven study
title_short Forecasting success via early adoptions analysis: A data-driven study
title_sort forecasting success via early adoptions analysis: a data-driven study
topic Research Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5720712/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29216255
http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0189096
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