Clinical Prediction Model for Time in Therapeutic Range While on Warfarin in Newly Diagnosed Atrial Fibrillation

BACKGROUND: Though warfarin has historically been the primary oral anticoagulant for stroke prevention in newly diagnosed atrial fibrillation (AF), several new direct oral anticoagulants may be preferred when anticoagulation control with warfarin is expected to be poor. This study developed a prediction model for time in therapeutic range (TTR) among newly diagnosed AF patients on newly initiated warfarin as a tool to assist decision making between warfarin and direct oral anticoagulants. METHODS AND RESULTS: This electronic medical record–based, retrospective study included newly diagnosed, nonvalvular AF patients with no recent warfarin exposure receiving primary care services through a large healthcare system in rural Pennsylvania. TTR was estimated as the percentage of time international normalized ratio measurements were between 2.0 and 3.0 during the first year following warfarin initiation. Candidate predictors of TTR were chosen from data elements collected during usual clinical care. A TTR prediction model was developed and temporally validated and its predictive performance was compared with the SAMe‐TT (2)R(2) score (sex, age, medical history, treatment, tobacco, race) using R (2) and c‐statistics. A total of 7877 newly diagnosed AF patients met study inclusion criteria. Median (interquartile range) TTR within the first year of starting warfarin was 51% (32, 67). Of 85 candidate predictors evaluated, 15 were included in the final validated model with an R (2) of 15.4%. The proposed model showed better predictive performance than the SAMe‐TT (2)R(2) score (R (2)=3.0%). CONCLUSIONS: The proposed prediction model may assist decision making on the proper mode of oral anticoagulant among newly diagnosed AF patients. However, predicting TTR on warfarin remains challenging.