Prediction of cognitive and motor development in preterm children using exhaustive feature selection and cross-validation of near-term white matter microstructure

BACKGROUND: Advanced neuroimaging and computational methods offer opportunities for more accurate prognosis. We hypothesized that near-term regional white matter (WM) microstructure, assessed on diffusion tensor imaging (DTI), using exhaustive feature selection with cross-validation would predict neurodevelopment in preterm children. METHODS: Near-term MRI and DTI obtained at 36.6 ± 1.8 weeks postmenstrual age in 66 very-low-birth-weight preterm neonates were assessed. 60/66 had follow-up neurodevelopmental evaluation with Bayley Scales of Infant-Toddler Development, 3rd-edition (BSID-III) at 18–22 months. Linear models with exhaustive feature selection and leave-one-out cross-validation computed based on DTI identified sets of three brain regions most predictive of cognitive and motor function; logistic regression models were computed to classify high-risk infants scoring one standard deviation below mean. RESULTS: Cognitive impairment was predicted (100% sensitivity, 100% specificity; AUC = 1) by near-term right middle-temporal gyrus MD, right cingulate-cingulum MD, left caudate MD. Motor impairment was predicted (90% sensitivity, 86% specificity; AUC = 0.912) by left precuneus FA, right superior occipital gyrus MD, right hippocampus FA. Cognitive score variance was explained (29.6%, cross-validated Rˆ2 = 0.296) by left posterior-limb-of-internal-capsule MD, Genu RD, right fusiform gyrus AD. Motor score variance was explained (31.7%, cross-validated Rˆ2 = 0.317) by left posterior-limb-of-internal-capsule MD, right parahippocampal gyrus AD, right middle-temporal gyrus AD. CONCLUSION: Search in large DTI feature space more accurately identified neonatal neuroimaging correlates of neurodevelopment.