Changes in physical activity during the retirement transition: a series of novel n-of-1 natural experiments

BACKGROUND: Existing evidence about the impact of retirement on physical activity (PA) has primarily focused on the average change in PA level after retirement in group-based studies. It is unclear whether findings regarding the direction of PA change after retirement from group-based studies apply to individuals. This study aimed to explore changes in PA, PA determinants and their inter-relationships during the retirement transition at the individual level. METHODS: A series of n-of-1 natural experiments were conducted with seven individuals who were aged 55–76 years and approaching retirement. PA was measured by tri-axial accelerometry. Twice-daily self-report and ecological momentary assessments of evidence- and theory-based determinants of PA (e.g. sleep length/quality, happiness, tiredness, stress, time pressure, pain, intention, perceived behavioural control, priority, goal conflict and goal facilitation) were collected via a questionnaire for a period of between 3 and 7 months, which included time before and after the participant’s retirement date. A personalised PA determinant was also identified by each participant and measured daily for the duration of the study. Dynamic regression models for discrete time binary data were used to analyse data for each individual participant. RESULTS: Two participants showed a statistically significant increase in the probability of engaging in PA bouts after retirement and two participants showed a significant time trend for a decrease and increase in PA bouts over time during the pre- to post-retirement period, respectively. There was no statistically significant change in PA after retirement for the remaining participants. Most of the daily questionnaire variables were significantly associated with PA for one or more participants but there were no consistent pattern of PA predictors across participants. For some participants, the relationship between questionnaire variables and PA changed from pre- to post-retirement. CONCLUSIONS: The findings from this study demonstrate the impact of retirement on individual PA trajectories. Using n-of-1 methods can provide information about unique patterns and determinants of individual behaviour over time, which has been obscured in previous research. N-of-1 methods can be used as a tool to inform personalised PA interventions for individuals within the retirement transition. ELECTRONIC SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL: The online version of this article (10.1186/s12966-017-0623-7) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.