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Nomogram for cirrhosis in patients with chronic hepatitis B: A simple self-assessed scale for individual risk of cirrhosis

The aim of this retrospective study was to establish a simple self-assessed scale for individual risk of cirrhosis in patients with chronic hepatitis B. A total of 1808 consecutive patients were enrolled and analyzed. According to the results of multivariate logistic regression analysis, a simple no...

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Autores principales: Zhang, Zhiqiao, Li, Jing, Wang, Peng, He, Tingshan, Ouyang, Yanling, Huang, Yiyan
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Nature Publishing Group UK 2017
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5727495/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29235488
http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-017-17685-4
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author Zhang, Zhiqiao
Li, Jing
Wang, Peng
He, Tingshan
Ouyang, Yanling
Huang, Yiyan
author_facet Zhang, Zhiqiao
Li, Jing
Wang, Peng
He, Tingshan
Ouyang, Yanling
Huang, Yiyan
author_sort Zhang, Zhiqiao
collection PubMed
description The aim of this retrospective study was to establish a simple self-assessed scale for individual risk of cirrhosis in patients with chronic hepatitis B. A total of 1808 consecutive patients were enrolled and analyzed. According to the results of multivariate logistic regression analysis, a simple nomogram was calculated for cirrhosis. The area under receiver operating characteristic curves (AUROCs) were calculated to compare the diagnostic accuracy of nomogram with aspartate aminotransferase to platelet ratio index (APRI), fibrosis index based on the four factors (FIB-4), and S index. The AUROCs of nomogram for cirrhosis were 0.807 (adjusted AUROC 0.876) in model group and 0.794 (adjusted AUROC0.866) in validation group. DeLong’s test and Brier Score further demonstrated that nomogram was superior to APRI, FIB-4 and S index in both model group and validation group. The patients with nomogram <0.07 could be defined as low risk group with cirrhosis prevalence lower than 4.3% (17/397). The patients with nomogram >0.52 could be defined as high risk group with cirrhosis prevalence higher than 73.0% (119/163). In conclusion, as a self-assessed style, simple, non-invasive, economical, convenient, and repeatable scale, nomogram is suitable to serve as a massive health screening tool for cirrhosis in CHB patients and further external validation is needed.
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spelling pubmed-57274952017-12-18 Nomogram for cirrhosis in patients with chronic hepatitis B: A simple self-assessed scale for individual risk of cirrhosis Zhang, Zhiqiao Li, Jing Wang, Peng He, Tingshan Ouyang, Yanling Huang, Yiyan Sci Rep Article The aim of this retrospective study was to establish a simple self-assessed scale for individual risk of cirrhosis in patients with chronic hepatitis B. A total of 1808 consecutive patients were enrolled and analyzed. According to the results of multivariate logistic regression analysis, a simple nomogram was calculated for cirrhosis. The area under receiver operating characteristic curves (AUROCs) were calculated to compare the diagnostic accuracy of nomogram with aspartate aminotransferase to platelet ratio index (APRI), fibrosis index based on the four factors (FIB-4), and S index. The AUROCs of nomogram for cirrhosis were 0.807 (adjusted AUROC 0.876) in model group and 0.794 (adjusted AUROC0.866) in validation group. DeLong’s test and Brier Score further demonstrated that nomogram was superior to APRI, FIB-4 and S index in both model group and validation group. The patients with nomogram <0.07 could be defined as low risk group with cirrhosis prevalence lower than 4.3% (17/397). The patients with nomogram >0.52 could be defined as high risk group with cirrhosis prevalence higher than 73.0% (119/163). In conclusion, as a self-assessed style, simple, non-invasive, economical, convenient, and repeatable scale, nomogram is suitable to serve as a massive health screening tool for cirrhosis in CHB patients and further external validation is needed. Nature Publishing Group UK 2017-12-13 /pmc/articles/PMC5727495/ /pubmed/29235488 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-017-17685-4 Text en © The Author(s) 2017 Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.
spellingShingle Article
Zhang, Zhiqiao
Li, Jing
Wang, Peng
He, Tingshan
Ouyang, Yanling
Huang, Yiyan
Nomogram for cirrhosis in patients with chronic hepatitis B: A simple self-assessed scale for individual risk of cirrhosis
title Nomogram for cirrhosis in patients with chronic hepatitis B: A simple self-assessed scale for individual risk of cirrhosis
title_full Nomogram for cirrhosis in patients with chronic hepatitis B: A simple self-assessed scale for individual risk of cirrhosis
title_fullStr Nomogram for cirrhosis in patients with chronic hepatitis B: A simple self-assessed scale for individual risk of cirrhosis
title_full_unstemmed Nomogram for cirrhosis in patients with chronic hepatitis B: A simple self-assessed scale for individual risk of cirrhosis
title_short Nomogram for cirrhosis in patients with chronic hepatitis B: A simple self-assessed scale for individual risk of cirrhosis
title_sort nomogram for cirrhosis in patients with chronic hepatitis b: a simple self-assessed scale for individual risk of cirrhosis
topic Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5727495/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29235488
http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-017-17685-4
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