Construction of a simulation model and evaluation of the effect of potential interventions on the incidence of diabetes and initiation of dialysis due to diabetic nephropathy in Japan

BACKGROUND: The prevalence of diabetes mellitus is a growing public health concern in Japan. We developed a simulation model to predict the number of people with diabetes and those on dialysis due to diabetic nephropathy. In addition, we used the model to simulate the impact of possible interventions on the number of people with diabetes and those on dialysis due to diabetic nephropathy in the near future. METHODS: A simulation model with aging chains for diabetes management was built using system dynamics. The model was calibrated to population data from 2000 to 2015 (sex- and age category-specific population, the prevalence of diabetes, and the number of patients on dialysis due to diabetic nephropathy). We extrapolated the model up to 2035 in order to predict future prevalence of diabetes and related dialysis (base run). We also ran the model, hypothesizing that incidence of diabetes and/or related dialysis would be reduced by half from 2015 to 2025 and that this rate would be maintained until 2035, in order to investigate the effects of hypothetical interventions on future prevalence. RESULTS: The developed model forecasted the population with diabetes to increase until 2028 (5.58 million males and 3.34 million females), and the population on dialysis due to diabetic nephropathy to increase until 2035 (113,000 males and 48,000 females). Simulation experiments suggested that diabetes prevention interventions would decrease the number of patients on dialysis in 2035 by 13.8% in males and 12.6% in females compared to the base run. In contrast, interventions aiming to avoid dialysis initiation for patients with diabetes would decrease the number of patients on dialysis by 37.8% in males and 38.1% in females. CONCLUSIONS: We successfully developed a simulation model to project the number of patients with diabetes and those on dialysis due to diabetic nephropathy. Simulation experiments using the model suggested that, as far as the perspective of the next 20 years, intervention to prevent dialysis is an important means of bending the increasing curve of dialysis in the population with diabetes. Simulation analysis may be useful when making and evaluating health policies related to diabetes and other chronic diseases. ELECTRONIC SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL: The online version of this article (10.1186/s12913-017-2784-0) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.