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Mathematical models used to inform study design or surveillance systems in infectious diseases: a systematic review

BACKGROUND: Mathematical models offer the possibility to investigate the infectious disease dynamics over time and may help in informing design of studies. A systematic review was performed in order to determine to what extent mathematical models have been incorporated into the process of planning s...

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Autores principales: Herzog, Sereina A., Blaizot, Stéphanie, Hens, Niel
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: BioMed Central 2017
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5735541/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29254504
http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s12879-017-2874-y
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author Herzog, Sereina A.
Blaizot, Stéphanie
Hens, Niel
author_facet Herzog, Sereina A.
Blaizot, Stéphanie
Hens, Niel
author_sort Herzog, Sereina A.
collection PubMed
description BACKGROUND: Mathematical models offer the possibility to investigate the infectious disease dynamics over time and may help in informing design of studies. A systematic review was performed in order to determine to what extent mathematical models have been incorporated into the process of planning studies and hence inform study design for infectious diseases transmitted between humans and/or animals. METHODS: We searched Ovid Medline and two trial registry platforms (Cochrane, WHO) using search terms related to infection, mathematical model, and study design from the earliest dates to October 2016. Eligible publications and registered trials included mathematical models (compartmental, individual-based, or Markov) which were described and used to inform the design of infectious disease studies. We extracted information about the investigated infection, population, model characteristics, and study design. RESULTS: We identified 28 unique publications but no registered trials. Focusing on compartmental and individual-based models we found 12 observational/surveillance studies and 11 clinical trials. Infections studied were equally animal and human infectious diseases for the observational/surveillance studies, while all but one between humans for clinical trials. The mathematical models were used to inform, amongst other things, the required sample size (n = 16), the statistical power (n = 9), the frequency at which samples should be taken (n = 6), and from whom (n = 6). CONCLUSIONS: Despite the fact that mathematical models have been advocated to be used at the planning stage of studies or surveillance systems, they are used scarcely. With only one exception, the publications described theoretical studies, hence, not being utilised in real studies. ELECTRONIC SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL: The online version of this article (10.1186/s12879-017-2874-y) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.
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spelling pubmed-57355412017-12-21 Mathematical models used to inform study design or surveillance systems in infectious diseases: a systematic review Herzog, Sereina A. Blaizot, Stéphanie Hens, Niel BMC Infect Dis Research Article BACKGROUND: Mathematical models offer the possibility to investigate the infectious disease dynamics over time and may help in informing design of studies. A systematic review was performed in order to determine to what extent mathematical models have been incorporated into the process of planning studies and hence inform study design for infectious diseases transmitted between humans and/or animals. METHODS: We searched Ovid Medline and two trial registry platforms (Cochrane, WHO) using search terms related to infection, mathematical model, and study design from the earliest dates to October 2016. Eligible publications and registered trials included mathematical models (compartmental, individual-based, or Markov) which were described and used to inform the design of infectious disease studies. We extracted information about the investigated infection, population, model characteristics, and study design. RESULTS: We identified 28 unique publications but no registered trials. Focusing on compartmental and individual-based models we found 12 observational/surveillance studies and 11 clinical trials. Infections studied were equally animal and human infectious diseases for the observational/surveillance studies, while all but one between humans for clinical trials. The mathematical models were used to inform, amongst other things, the required sample size (n = 16), the statistical power (n = 9), the frequency at which samples should be taken (n = 6), and from whom (n = 6). CONCLUSIONS: Despite the fact that mathematical models have been advocated to be used at the planning stage of studies or surveillance systems, they are used scarcely. With only one exception, the publications described theoretical studies, hence, not being utilised in real studies. ELECTRONIC SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL: The online version of this article (10.1186/s12879-017-2874-y) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users. BioMed Central 2017-12-18 /pmc/articles/PMC5735541/ /pubmed/29254504 http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s12879-017-2874-y Text en © The Author(s). 2017 Open AccessThis article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The Creative Commons Public Domain Dedication waiver (http://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/) applies to the data made available in this article, unless otherwise stated.
spellingShingle Research Article
Herzog, Sereina A.
Blaizot, Stéphanie
Hens, Niel
Mathematical models used to inform study design or surveillance systems in infectious diseases: a systematic review
title Mathematical models used to inform study design or surveillance systems in infectious diseases: a systematic review
title_full Mathematical models used to inform study design or surveillance systems in infectious diseases: a systematic review
title_fullStr Mathematical models used to inform study design or surveillance systems in infectious diseases: a systematic review
title_full_unstemmed Mathematical models used to inform study design or surveillance systems in infectious diseases: a systematic review
title_short Mathematical models used to inform study design or surveillance systems in infectious diseases: a systematic review
title_sort mathematical models used to inform study design or surveillance systems in infectious diseases: a systematic review
topic Research Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5735541/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29254504
http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s12879-017-2874-y
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