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Heat-Related Mortality in Japan after the 2011 Fukushima Disaster: An Analysis of Potential Influence of Reduced Electricity Consumption

BACKGROUND: In March 2011, the Great East Japan Earthquake devastated several power stations and caused severe electricity shortages. This accident was followed by the implementation of policies to reduce summer electricity consumption in the affected areas, for example, by limiting air-conditioning...

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Autores principales: Kim, Yoonhee, Gasparrini, Antonio, Hashizume, Masahiro, Honda, Yasushi, Ng, Chris Fook Sheng, Armstrong, Ben
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Environmental Health Perspectives 2017
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5744700/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28686555
http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/EHP493
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author Kim, Yoonhee
Gasparrini, Antonio
Hashizume, Masahiro
Honda, Yasushi
Ng, Chris Fook Sheng
Armstrong, Ben
author_facet Kim, Yoonhee
Gasparrini, Antonio
Hashizume, Masahiro
Honda, Yasushi
Ng, Chris Fook Sheng
Armstrong, Ben
author_sort Kim, Yoonhee
collection PubMed
description BACKGROUND: In March 2011, the Great East Japan Earthquake devastated several power stations and caused severe electricity shortages. This accident was followed by the implementation of policies to reduce summer electricity consumption in the affected areas, for example, by limiting air-conditioning (AC) use. This provided a natural experimental scenario to investigate if these policies were associated with an increase in heat-related mortality. OBJECTIVES: We examined whether the reduced electricity consumption in warm season modified heat-related mortality from 2008 to 2012. METHODS: We conducted prefecture-specific interrupted time-series (ITS) analyses to compare temperature–mortality associations before and after the earthquake, and used meta-analysis to generate combined effect estimates for the most affected and less affected areas (prefectures with [Formula: see text] or [Formula: see text] reductions in electricity consumption, respectively). We then examined whether the temperature–mortality association in Tokyo, one of the most affected areas, was modified by the percent reduction in electricity consumption relative to expected consumption for comparable days before the earthquake. RESULTS: Contrary to expectations, we estimated a 5–9% reduction in all-cause heat-related mortality after the earthquake in the 15 prefectures with the greatest reduction in electricity consumption, and little change in the other prefectures. However, the percent reduction in observed vs. expected daily electricity consumption after the earthquake did not significantly modify daily heat-related mortality in Tokyo. CONCLUSIONS: In the prefectures with the greatest reductions in electricity consumption, heat-related mortality decreased rather than increased following the Great East Japan Earthquake. Additional research is needed to determine whether this finding holds for other populations and regions, and to clarify its implications for policies to reduce the consequences of climate change on health. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP493
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spelling pubmed-57447002017-12-31 Heat-Related Mortality in Japan after the 2011 Fukushima Disaster: An Analysis of Potential Influence of Reduced Electricity Consumption Kim, Yoonhee Gasparrini, Antonio Hashizume, Masahiro Honda, Yasushi Ng, Chris Fook Sheng Armstrong, Ben Environ Health Perspect Research BACKGROUND: In March 2011, the Great East Japan Earthquake devastated several power stations and caused severe electricity shortages. This accident was followed by the implementation of policies to reduce summer electricity consumption in the affected areas, for example, by limiting air-conditioning (AC) use. This provided a natural experimental scenario to investigate if these policies were associated with an increase in heat-related mortality. OBJECTIVES: We examined whether the reduced electricity consumption in warm season modified heat-related mortality from 2008 to 2012. METHODS: We conducted prefecture-specific interrupted time-series (ITS) analyses to compare temperature–mortality associations before and after the earthquake, and used meta-analysis to generate combined effect estimates for the most affected and less affected areas (prefectures with [Formula: see text] or [Formula: see text] reductions in electricity consumption, respectively). We then examined whether the temperature–mortality association in Tokyo, one of the most affected areas, was modified by the percent reduction in electricity consumption relative to expected consumption for comparable days before the earthquake. RESULTS: Contrary to expectations, we estimated a 5–9% reduction in all-cause heat-related mortality after the earthquake in the 15 prefectures with the greatest reduction in electricity consumption, and little change in the other prefectures. However, the percent reduction in observed vs. expected daily electricity consumption after the earthquake did not significantly modify daily heat-related mortality in Tokyo. CONCLUSIONS: In the prefectures with the greatest reductions in electricity consumption, heat-related mortality decreased rather than increased following the Great East Japan Earthquake. Additional research is needed to determine whether this finding holds for other populations and regions, and to clarify its implications for policies to reduce the consequences of climate change on health. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP493 Environmental Health Perspectives 2017-07-06 /pmc/articles/PMC5744700/ /pubmed/28686555 http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/EHP493 Text en EHP is an open-access journal published with support from the National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences, National Institutes of Health. All content is public domain unless otherwise noted.
spellingShingle Research
Kim, Yoonhee
Gasparrini, Antonio
Hashizume, Masahiro
Honda, Yasushi
Ng, Chris Fook Sheng
Armstrong, Ben
Heat-Related Mortality in Japan after the 2011 Fukushima Disaster: An Analysis of Potential Influence of Reduced Electricity Consumption
title Heat-Related Mortality in Japan after the 2011 Fukushima Disaster: An Analysis of Potential Influence of Reduced Electricity Consumption
title_full Heat-Related Mortality in Japan after the 2011 Fukushima Disaster: An Analysis of Potential Influence of Reduced Electricity Consumption
title_fullStr Heat-Related Mortality in Japan after the 2011 Fukushima Disaster: An Analysis of Potential Influence of Reduced Electricity Consumption
title_full_unstemmed Heat-Related Mortality in Japan after the 2011 Fukushima Disaster: An Analysis of Potential Influence of Reduced Electricity Consumption
title_short Heat-Related Mortality in Japan after the 2011 Fukushima Disaster: An Analysis of Potential Influence of Reduced Electricity Consumption
title_sort heat-related mortality in japan after the 2011 fukushima disaster: an analysis of potential influence of reduced electricity consumption
topic Research
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5744700/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28686555
http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/EHP493
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