The Seasonal Periodicity of Healthy Contemplations About Exercise and Weight Loss: Ecological Correlational Study

BACKGROUND: Lack of physical activity and weight gain are two of the biggest drivers of health care costs in the United States. Healthy contemplations are required before any changes in behavior, and a recent study has shown that they have underlying periodicities. OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to examine seasonal variations in state-by-state interest in both weight loss and increasing physical activity, and how these variations were associated with geographic latitude using Google Trends search data for the United States. METHODS: Internet search query data were obtained from Google Trends (2004-2016). Time series analysis (every 2 weeks) was performed to determine search volume (normalized to overall search intensity). Seasonality was determined both by the difference in search volumes between winter (December, January, and February) and summer (June, July, and August) months and by the amplitude of cosinor analysis. RESULTS: Exercise-related searches were highest during the winter months, whereas weight loss contemplations showed a biphasic pattern (peaking in the summer and winter months). The magnitude of the seasonal difference increased with increasing latitude for both exercise (R(2)=.45, F(1,49)=40.09, beta=−.671, standard deviation [SD]=0.106, P<.001) and weight loss (R(2)=.24, F(1,49)=15.79, beta=−.494, SD=0.124, P<.001) searches. CONCLUSIONS: Healthy contemplations follow specific seasonal patterns, with the highest contemplations surrounding exercise during the winter months, and weight loss contemplations peaking during both winter and summer seasons. Knowledge of seasonal variations in passive contemplations may potentially allow for more efficient use of public health campaign resources.