Colorectal Cancer Incidence Trend and Projections in Tunisia (1994 - 2024)

OBJECTIVES: The aim of this study was to describe trends of colorectal cancer incidence during the period 1994-2009 and to generate projections until 2024. METHODS: The North-Tunisia Cancer Registry (NTCR) was the source of data for patients with CRC. This registry lists, since 1994, cases of malignant tumors in people living in North Tunisia, including the District of Tunis, the north east and the north west. Cases were classified using the International Classification of Diseases for Oncology. Data were analyzed using R software and Joinpoint one was employed to analyse trends. Projections were performed using the Age Period Cohort based on poisson regression. RESULTS: During the period 1994 to 2009, 6,909 new cases of CRC were registered in Northern Tunisia. The age standardized incidence rate (ASR) increased significantly from 6.4/100,000 in 1994 to 12.4/100,000 in 2009. Trends in CRC incidence was significantly rising with an annual percentage change (APC) of + 3,9% [2.8% -5.1%]. Without effective interventions, the predicted CRC ASR would be 39.3/100,000 [CI 95%: 32,9/100,000 - 48,8/100,000] in 2024. CONCLUSION: The incidence of colorectal cancer is clearly increasing in Tunisia. Strengthening of screening and primary prevention measures is to be recommended.