Quantitative Properties of the Macro Supply and Demand Structure for Care Facilities for Elderly in Japan

As the Asian country with the most aged population, Japan, has been modifying its social welfare system. In 2000, the Japanese social care vision turned towards meeting the elderly’s care needs in their own homes with proper formal care services. This study aims to understand the quantitative properties of the macro supply and demand structure for facilities for the elderly who require support or long-term care throughout Japan and present them as index values. Additionally, this study compares the targets for establishing long-term care facilities set by Japan’s Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare for 2025. In 2014, approximately 90% of all the people who were certified as requiring support and long-term care and those receiving preventive long-term care or long-term care services, were 75 years or older. The target increases in the number of established facilities by 2025 (for the 75-years-or-older population) were calculated to be 3.3% for nursing homes; 2.71% for long-term-care health facilities; 1.7% for group living facilities; and, 1.84% for community-based multi-care facilities. It was revealed that the establishment targets for 2025 also increase over current projections with the expected increase of the absolute number of users of group living facilities and community-based multi-care facilities. On the other hand, the establishment target for nursing homes remains almost the same as the current projection, whereas that for long-term-care health facilities decreases. These changes of facility ratios reveal that the Japanese social care system is shifting to realize ‘Ageing in Place’. When considering households’ tendencies, the target ratios for established facilities are expected to be applied to the other countries in Asia.