Improved Prediction of the Pathologic Stage of Patient With Prostate Cancer Using the CART–PSO Optimization Analysis in the Korean Population

OBJECTIVE: In current practice, medical experts use the pathological stage predictions provided in the Partin tables to support their decisions. Hence, the Partin tables are based on logistic regression built from the US data. In the present study, we developed a data-mining model to predict the pathologic stage of prostate cancer. In this newly developed model, using the classification and regression tree-particle swarm optimization analysis of the Korean population data, we aim to improve the prediction accuracy of the pathologic state of prostate cancer. METHOD: A total of 467 patients from the smart prostate cancer database were evaluated. The results were intended to predict the pathologic stage of prostate cancer: organ-confined disease and non–organ-confined disease. The accuracy of 4 classification and regression tree-particle swarm optimization models was compared; furthermore, the models were validated with the Partin tables using the receiver operating characteristic curve. RESULTS: Among the 467 evaluated patients, 235 patients had organ-confined disease and 232 patients had non–organ-confined disease. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of the proposed classification and regression tree-particle swarm optimization model (0.858 ± 0.034) was larger than the 1 in the Partin tables (0.666 ± 0.046). CONCLUSION: The proposed classification and regression tree-particle swarm optimization model was superior to the Partin tables in terms of predicting the risk of prostate cancer. Compared to the validation of the Partin tables for the Korean population, the classification and regression tree-particle swarm optimization model resulted in a larger receiver operating characteristic curve and a more accurate prediction of the pathologic stage of prostate cancer in the Korean population.