A proposed classification for assessing rupture risk in patients with intracranial arteriovenous malformations

BACKGROUND: Whether cerebral arteriovenous malformations (AVMs) should be treated remains an ongoing debate. Nevertheless, there is a need for predictive factors that assist in labelling lesions as low or high risk for future rupture. Our aim was to design a new classification that would consider hemodynamic and anatomic factors in the rapid assessment of rupture risk in patients with AVMs. METHODS: This was a retrospective study that included 639 patients with ruptured and unruptured AVMs. We proposed a new classification score (1–4 points) for AVM rupture risk using three factors: feeding artery mean velocity (Vm), nidus size, and type of venous drainage. We employed descriptive statistics and logistic regression analysis. RESULTS: A total of 639 patients with cerebral AVMs, 388 (60%) had unruptured AVMs and 251 (40%) had ruptured AVMs. Logistic regression analysis revealed a significant effect of Vm, nidus size, and venous drainage type in accounting for the variability of rupture odds (P = 0.0001, R(2) = 0.437) for patients with AVMs. Based in the odds ratios, grades 1 and 2 of the proposed classification were corresponded to low risk of hemorrhage, while grades 3 and 4 were associated with hemorrhage: 1 point OR = (0.107 95% CI; 0.061–0.188), 2 point OR = (0.227 95% CI; 0.153–0.338), 3 point OR = (3.292 95% CI; 2.325–4.661), and 4 point OR = (23.304 95% CI; 11.077–49.027). CONCLUSION: This classification is useful and easy to use, and it may allow for the individualisation of each cerebral AVM and the assessment of rupture risk based on a model of categorisation.