Binding free energy predictions of farnesoid X receptor (FXR) agonists using a linear interaction energy (LIE) approach with reliability estimation: application to the D3R Grand Challenge 2

Computational protein binding affinity prediction can play an important role in drug research but performing efficient and accurate binding free energy calculations is still challenging. In the context of phase 2 of the Drug Design Data Resource (D3R) Grand Challenge 2 we used our automated eTOX ALLIES approach to apply the (iterative) linear interaction energy (LIE) method and we evaluated its performance in predicting binding affinities for farnesoid X receptor (FXR) agonists. Efficiency was obtained by our pre-calibrated LIE models and molecular dynamics (MD) simulations at the nanosecond scale, while predictive accuracy was obtained for a small subset of compounds. Using our recently introduced reliability estimation metrics, we could classify predictions with higher confidence by featuring an applicability domain (AD) analysis in combination with protein–ligand interaction profiling. The outcomes of and agreement between our AD and interaction-profile analyses to distinguish and rationalize the performance of our predictions highlighted the relevance of sufficiently exploring protein–ligand interactions during training and it demonstrated the possibility to quantitatively and efficiently evaluate if this is achieved by using simulation data only. ELECTRONIC SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL: The online version of this article (doi:10.1007/s10822-017-0055-0) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.