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Adaptation to Climate Change: A Comparative Analysis of Modeling Methods for Heat-Related Mortality

BACKGROUND: Multiple methods are employed for modeling adaptation when projecting the impact of climate change on heat-related mortality. The sensitivity of impacts to each is unknown because they have never been systematically compared. In addition, little is known about the relative sensitivity of...

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Autores principales: Gosling, Simon N., Hondula, David M., Bunker, Aditi, Ibarreta, Dolores, Liu, Junguo, Zhang, Xinxin, Sauerborn, Rainer
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Environmental Health Perspectives 2017
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5783656/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28885979
http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/EHP634
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author Gosling, Simon N.
Hondula, David M.
Bunker, Aditi
Ibarreta, Dolores
Liu, Junguo
Zhang, Xinxin
Sauerborn, Rainer
author_facet Gosling, Simon N.
Hondula, David M.
Bunker, Aditi
Ibarreta, Dolores
Liu, Junguo
Zhang, Xinxin
Sauerborn, Rainer
author_sort Gosling, Simon N.
collection PubMed
description BACKGROUND: Multiple methods are employed for modeling adaptation when projecting the impact of climate change on heat-related mortality. The sensitivity of impacts to each is unknown because they have never been systematically compared. In addition, little is known about the relative sensitivity of impacts to “adaptation uncertainty” (i.e., the inclusion/exclusion of adaptation modeling) relative to using multiple climate models and emissions scenarios. OBJECTIVES: This study had three aims: a) Compare the range in projected impacts that arises from using different adaptation modeling methods; b) compare the range in impacts that arises from adaptation uncertainty with ranges from using multiple climate models and emissions scenarios; c) recommend modeling method(s) to use in future impact assessments. METHODS: We estimated impacts for 2070–2099 for 14 European cities, applying six different methods for modeling adaptation; we also estimated impacts with five climate models run under two emissions scenarios to explore the relative effects of climate modeling and emissions uncertainty. RESULTS: The range of the difference (percent) in impacts between including and excluding adaptation, irrespective of climate modeling and emissions uncertainty, can be as low as 28% with one method and up to 103% with another (mean across 14 cities). In 13 of 14 cities, the ranges in projected impacts due to adaptation uncertainty are larger than those associated with climate modeling and emissions uncertainty. CONCLUSIONS: Researchers should carefully consider how to model adaptation because it is a source of uncertainty that can be greater than the uncertainty in emissions and climate modeling. We recommend absolute threshold shifts and reductions in slope. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP634
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spelling pubmed-57836562018-03-02 Adaptation to Climate Change: A Comparative Analysis of Modeling Methods for Heat-Related Mortality Gosling, Simon N. Hondula, David M. Bunker, Aditi Ibarreta, Dolores Liu, Junguo Zhang, Xinxin Sauerborn, Rainer Environ Health Perspect Research BACKGROUND: Multiple methods are employed for modeling adaptation when projecting the impact of climate change on heat-related mortality. The sensitivity of impacts to each is unknown because they have never been systematically compared. In addition, little is known about the relative sensitivity of impacts to “adaptation uncertainty” (i.e., the inclusion/exclusion of adaptation modeling) relative to using multiple climate models and emissions scenarios. OBJECTIVES: This study had three aims: a) Compare the range in projected impacts that arises from using different adaptation modeling methods; b) compare the range in impacts that arises from adaptation uncertainty with ranges from using multiple climate models and emissions scenarios; c) recommend modeling method(s) to use in future impact assessments. METHODS: We estimated impacts for 2070–2099 for 14 European cities, applying six different methods for modeling adaptation; we also estimated impacts with five climate models run under two emissions scenarios to explore the relative effects of climate modeling and emissions uncertainty. RESULTS: The range of the difference (percent) in impacts between including and excluding adaptation, irrespective of climate modeling and emissions uncertainty, can be as low as 28% with one method and up to 103% with another (mean across 14 cities). In 13 of 14 cities, the ranges in projected impacts due to adaptation uncertainty are larger than those associated with climate modeling and emissions uncertainty. CONCLUSIONS: Researchers should carefully consider how to model adaptation because it is a source of uncertainty that can be greater than the uncertainty in emissions and climate modeling. We recommend absolute threshold shifts and reductions in slope. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP634 Environmental Health Perspectives 2017-08-16 /pmc/articles/PMC5783656/ /pubmed/28885979 http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/EHP634 Text en EHP is an open-access journal published with support from the National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences, National Institutes of Health. All content is public domain unless otherwise noted.
spellingShingle Research
Gosling, Simon N.
Hondula, David M.
Bunker, Aditi
Ibarreta, Dolores
Liu, Junguo
Zhang, Xinxin
Sauerborn, Rainer
Adaptation to Climate Change: A Comparative Analysis of Modeling Methods for Heat-Related Mortality
title Adaptation to Climate Change: A Comparative Analysis of Modeling Methods for Heat-Related Mortality
title_full Adaptation to Climate Change: A Comparative Analysis of Modeling Methods for Heat-Related Mortality
title_fullStr Adaptation to Climate Change: A Comparative Analysis of Modeling Methods for Heat-Related Mortality
title_full_unstemmed Adaptation to Climate Change: A Comparative Analysis of Modeling Methods for Heat-Related Mortality
title_short Adaptation to Climate Change: A Comparative Analysis of Modeling Methods for Heat-Related Mortality
title_sort adaptation to climate change: a comparative analysis of modeling methods for heat-related mortality
topic Research
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5783656/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28885979
http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/EHP634
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