Incremental predictive value of screening for anxiety and depression beyond current type 2 diabetes risk models: a prospective cohort study

OBJECTIVES: We sought to determine whether screening for anxiety and depression, an emerging risk factor for type 2 diabetes (T2D), adds clinically meaningful information beyond current T2D risk assessment tools. DESIGN: Prospective cohort. PARTICIPANTS AND SETTING: The 45 and Up Study is a large-scale prospective cohort of men and women aged 45 years and over, randomly sampled from the general population of New South Wales, Australia. 51 588 participants without self-reported diabetes at baseline (2006–2009) were followed up for approximately 3 years (2010). METHODS: T2D status was determined by self-reported doctor who diagnosed diabetes after the age of 30 years, and/or current use of metformin. Current symptoms of anxiety and/or depression were measured by the 10-item Kessler Psychological Distress Scale (K10). We determined the optimal cut-off point for K10 for predicting T2D using Tjur’s R2 and tested risk models with and without the K10 using logistic regression. We assessed performance measures for the incremental value of the K10 using the area under the receiver operating characteristic (AROC), net reclassification improvement (NRI) and net benefit (NB) decision analytics with sensitivity analyses. RESULTS: T2D developed in 1076 individuals (52.4% men). A K10 score of ≥19 (prevalence 8.97%), adjusted for age and gender, was optimal for predicting incident T2D (sensitivity 77%, specificity 53% and positive predictive value 3%; OR 1.70 (95% CI 1.41 to 2.03, P<0.001). K10 score predicted incident T2D independent of current risk models, but did not improve corresponding AROC, NRI and NB statistics. Sensitivity analyses showed that this was partially explained by the baseline model and the small effect size of the K10 that was similar compared with other risk factors. CONCLUSIONS: Anxiety and depressing screening with the K10 adds no meaningful incremental value in addition to current T2D risk assessments. The clinical importance of anxiety and depression screening in preventing T2D requires ongoing consideration.