Quantifying the influence of temperature on hand, foot and mouth disease incidence in Wuhan, Central China

Hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) is a substantial burden throughout Asia, but the effects of temperature pattern on HFMD risk are inconsistent. To quantify the effect of temperature on HFMD incidence, Wuhan was chosen as the study site because of its high temperature variability and high HFMD incidence. Daily series of HFMD counts and meteorological variables during 2010–2015 were obtained. Distributed lag non-linear models were applied to characterize the temperature-HFMD relationship and to assess its variability across different ages, genders, and types of child care. Totally, 80,219 patients of 0–5 years experienced HFMD in 2010–2015 in Wuhan. The cumulative relative risk of HFMD increased linearly with temperature over 7 days (lag0–7), while it presented as an approximately inverted V-shape over 14 days (lag0–14). The cumulative relative risk at lag0–14 peaked at 26.4 °C with value of 2.78 (95%CI: 2.08–3.72) compared with the 5(th) percentile temperature (1.7 °C). Subgroup analyses revealed that children attended daycare were more vulnerable to temperature variation than those cared for at home. This study suggests that public health actions should take into consideration local weather conditions and demographic characteristics.