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Quantifying the influence of temperature on hand, foot and mouth disease incidence in Wuhan, Central China

Hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) is a substantial burden throughout Asia, but the effects of temperature pattern on HFMD risk are inconsistent. To quantify the effect of temperature on HFMD incidence, Wuhan was chosen as the study site because of its high temperature variability and high HFMD inc...

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Autores principales: Huang, Jiao, Chen, Shi, Wu, Yang, Tong, Yeqing, Wang, Lei, Zhu, Min, Hu, Shuhua, Guan, Xuhua, Wei, Sheng
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Nature Publishing Group UK 2018
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5792432/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29386630
http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-018-20318-z
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author Huang, Jiao
Chen, Shi
Wu, Yang
Tong, Yeqing
Wang, Lei
Zhu, Min
Hu, Shuhua
Guan, Xuhua
Wei, Sheng
author_facet Huang, Jiao
Chen, Shi
Wu, Yang
Tong, Yeqing
Wang, Lei
Zhu, Min
Hu, Shuhua
Guan, Xuhua
Wei, Sheng
author_sort Huang, Jiao
collection PubMed
description Hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) is a substantial burden throughout Asia, but the effects of temperature pattern on HFMD risk are inconsistent. To quantify the effect of temperature on HFMD incidence, Wuhan was chosen as the study site because of its high temperature variability and high HFMD incidence. Daily series of HFMD counts and meteorological variables during 2010–2015 were obtained. Distributed lag non-linear models were applied to characterize the temperature-HFMD relationship and to assess its variability across different ages, genders, and types of child care. Totally, 80,219 patients of 0–5 years experienced HFMD in 2010–2015 in Wuhan. The cumulative relative risk of HFMD increased linearly with temperature over 7 days (lag0–7), while it presented as an approximately inverted V-shape over 14 days (lag0–14). The cumulative relative risk at lag0–14 peaked at 26.4 °C with value of 2.78 (95%CI: 2.08–3.72) compared with the 5(th) percentile temperature (1.7 °C). Subgroup analyses revealed that children attended daycare were more vulnerable to temperature variation than those cared for at home. This study suggests that public health actions should take into consideration local weather conditions and demographic characteristics.
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spelling pubmed-57924322018-02-12 Quantifying the influence of temperature on hand, foot and mouth disease incidence in Wuhan, Central China Huang, Jiao Chen, Shi Wu, Yang Tong, Yeqing Wang, Lei Zhu, Min Hu, Shuhua Guan, Xuhua Wei, Sheng Sci Rep Article Hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) is a substantial burden throughout Asia, but the effects of temperature pattern on HFMD risk are inconsistent. To quantify the effect of temperature on HFMD incidence, Wuhan was chosen as the study site because of its high temperature variability and high HFMD incidence. Daily series of HFMD counts and meteorological variables during 2010–2015 were obtained. Distributed lag non-linear models were applied to characterize the temperature-HFMD relationship and to assess its variability across different ages, genders, and types of child care. Totally, 80,219 patients of 0–5 years experienced HFMD in 2010–2015 in Wuhan. The cumulative relative risk of HFMD increased linearly with temperature over 7 days (lag0–7), while it presented as an approximately inverted V-shape over 14 days (lag0–14). The cumulative relative risk at lag0–14 peaked at 26.4 °C with value of 2.78 (95%CI: 2.08–3.72) compared with the 5(th) percentile temperature (1.7 °C). Subgroup analyses revealed that children attended daycare were more vulnerable to temperature variation than those cared for at home. This study suggests that public health actions should take into consideration local weather conditions and demographic characteristics. Nature Publishing Group UK 2018-01-31 /pmc/articles/PMC5792432/ /pubmed/29386630 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-018-20318-z Text en © The Author(s) 2018 Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.
spellingShingle Article
Huang, Jiao
Chen, Shi
Wu, Yang
Tong, Yeqing
Wang, Lei
Zhu, Min
Hu, Shuhua
Guan, Xuhua
Wei, Sheng
Quantifying the influence of temperature on hand, foot and mouth disease incidence in Wuhan, Central China
title Quantifying the influence of temperature on hand, foot and mouth disease incidence in Wuhan, Central China
title_full Quantifying the influence of temperature on hand, foot and mouth disease incidence in Wuhan, Central China
title_fullStr Quantifying the influence of temperature on hand, foot and mouth disease incidence in Wuhan, Central China
title_full_unstemmed Quantifying the influence of temperature on hand, foot and mouth disease incidence in Wuhan, Central China
title_short Quantifying the influence of temperature on hand, foot and mouth disease incidence in Wuhan, Central China
title_sort quantifying the influence of temperature on hand, foot and mouth disease incidence in wuhan, central china
topic Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5792432/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29386630
http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-018-20318-z
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