Exploratory analyses assessing the impact of early tumour shrinkage and depth of response on survival outcomes in patients with RAS wild-type metastatic colorectal cancer receiving treatment in three randomised panitumumab trials

PURPOSE: To report exploratory analyses of early tumour shrinkage (ETS) and depth of response (DpR) in patients with RAS wild-type (WT) metastatic colorectal cancer (mCRC), receiving the first-line treatment in three randomised panitumumab trials. METHODS: Data from the PRIME (NCT00364013), PEAK (NCT00819780) and PLANET (NCT00885885) studies were included. Median DpR, the proportion of patients achieving ETS ≥ 20% or ≥ 30% at week 8, and the impact of ETS and DpR (including by category) on outcome were analysed. Factors associated with ETS and DpR and the optimal ETS/DpR cut-off values for predicting improved overall survival (OS) were assessed. RESULTS: Overall, 505, 170 and 53 patients had RAS WT mCRC in PRIME, PEAK and PLANET, respectively. Patients receiving panitumumab had higher ETS rates (≥ 30%: PRIME 59% vs. 38%; PEAK 64% vs. 45%) and greater DpR (PRIME: 54% vs. 46%; PEAK: 65% vs. 46%) than those receiving treatment without panitumumab. In multiple regression analyses, panitumumab treatment, liver-only metastases and WT BRAF status were consistently associated with improved ETS and DpR outcomes. Irrespective of treatment, ETS and DpR were associated with improved progression-free survival, overall survival and resection rates; most resections occurred in patients in the two highest DpR categories. In PRIME and PEAK, respectively, the optimal cut-offs for predicting improved OS were 32 and 34% for ETS, and 59 and 70% for DpR. CONCLUSIONS: These exploratory analyses suggest that panitumumab is associated ETS and DpR benefits in patients with RAS WT mCRC and that achieving these endpoints during first-line treatment is linked with favourable outcomes. ELECTRONIC SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL: The online version of this article (doi:10.1007/s00432-017-2534-z) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.