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Reduced arctic tundra productivity linked with landform and climate change interactions
Arctic tundra ecosystems have experienced unprecedented change associated with climate warming over recent decades. Across the Pan-Arctic, vegetation productivity and surface greenness have trended positively over the period of satellite observation. However, since 2011 these trends have slowed cons...
Autores principales: | , , , , |
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Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
Nature Publishing Group UK
2018
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Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5799341/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29402988 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-018-20692-8 |
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author | Lara, Mark J. Nitze, Ingmar Grosse, Guido Martin, Philip McGuire, A. David |
author_facet | Lara, Mark J. Nitze, Ingmar Grosse, Guido Martin, Philip McGuire, A. David |
author_sort | Lara, Mark J. |
collection | PubMed |
description | Arctic tundra ecosystems have experienced unprecedented change associated with climate warming over recent decades. Across the Pan-Arctic, vegetation productivity and surface greenness have trended positively over the period of satellite observation. However, since 2011 these trends have slowed considerably, showing signs of browning in many regions. It is unclear what factors are driving this change and which regions/landforms will be most sensitive to future browning. Here we provide evidence linking decadal patterns in arctic greening and browning with regional climate change and local permafrost-driven landscape heterogeneity. We analyzed the spatial variability of decadal-scale trends in surface greenness across the Arctic Coastal Plain of northern Alaska (~60,000 km²) using the Landsat archive (1999–2014), in combination with novel 30 m classifications of polygonal tundra and regional watersheds, finding landscape heterogeneity and regional climate change to be the most important factors controlling historical greenness trends. Browning was linked to increased temperature and precipitation, with the exception of young landforms (developed following lake drainage), which will likely continue to green. Spatiotemporal model forecasting suggests carbon uptake potential to be reduced in response to warmer and/or wetter climatic conditions, potentially increasing the net loss of carbon to the atmosphere, at a greater degree than previously expected. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-5799341 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2018 |
publisher | Nature Publishing Group UK |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-57993412018-02-14 Reduced arctic tundra productivity linked with landform and climate change interactions Lara, Mark J. Nitze, Ingmar Grosse, Guido Martin, Philip McGuire, A. David Sci Rep Article Arctic tundra ecosystems have experienced unprecedented change associated with climate warming over recent decades. Across the Pan-Arctic, vegetation productivity and surface greenness have trended positively over the period of satellite observation. However, since 2011 these trends have slowed considerably, showing signs of browning in many regions. It is unclear what factors are driving this change and which regions/landforms will be most sensitive to future browning. Here we provide evidence linking decadal patterns in arctic greening and browning with regional climate change and local permafrost-driven landscape heterogeneity. We analyzed the spatial variability of decadal-scale trends in surface greenness across the Arctic Coastal Plain of northern Alaska (~60,000 km²) using the Landsat archive (1999–2014), in combination with novel 30 m classifications of polygonal tundra and regional watersheds, finding landscape heterogeneity and regional climate change to be the most important factors controlling historical greenness trends. Browning was linked to increased temperature and precipitation, with the exception of young landforms (developed following lake drainage), which will likely continue to green. Spatiotemporal model forecasting suggests carbon uptake potential to be reduced in response to warmer and/or wetter climatic conditions, potentially increasing the net loss of carbon to the atmosphere, at a greater degree than previously expected. Nature Publishing Group UK 2018-02-05 /pmc/articles/PMC5799341/ /pubmed/29402988 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-018-20692-8 Text en © The Author(s) 2018 Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/. |
spellingShingle | Article Lara, Mark J. Nitze, Ingmar Grosse, Guido Martin, Philip McGuire, A. David Reduced arctic tundra productivity linked with landform and climate change interactions |
title | Reduced arctic tundra productivity linked with landform and climate change interactions |
title_full | Reduced arctic tundra productivity linked with landform and climate change interactions |
title_fullStr | Reduced arctic tundra productivity linked with landform and climate change interactions |
title_full_unstemmed | Reduced arctic tundra productivity linked with landform and climate change interactions |
title_short | Reduced arctic tundra productivity linked with landform and climate change interactions |
title_sort | reduced arctic tundra productivity linked with landform and climate change interactions |
topic | Article |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5799341/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29402988 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-018-20692-8 |
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