Local temperatures predict breeding phenology but do not result in breeding synchrony among a community of resident cavity-nesting birds

Weather and ecological factors are known to influence breeding phenology and thus individual fitness. We predicted concordance between weather conditions and annual variation in phenology within a community of eight resident, cavity-nesting bird species over a 17-year period. We show that, although clutch initiation dates for six of our eight species are correlated with local daily maximum temperatures, this common driver does not produce a high degree of breeding synchrony due to species-specific responses to conditions during different periods of the preceding winter or spring. These “critical temperature periods” were positively associated with average lay date for each species, although the interval between critical periods and clutch initiation varied from 4–78 days. The ecological factors we examined (cavity availability and a food pulse) had an additional influence on timing in only one of our eight focal species. Our results have strong implications for understanding heterogeneous wildlife responses to climate change: divergent responses would be expected within communities where species respond to local conditions within different temporal windows, due to differing warming trends between winter and spring. Our system therefore indicates that climate change could alter relative breeding phenology among sympatric species in temperate ecosystems.