The prognostic value of HPV combined p16 status in patients with anal squamous cell carcinoma: a meta-analysis

Human papillomavirus (HPV) DNA and p16 expression have been identified to be related to the progression of anal squamous cell carcinoma (ASCC). However, the prognostic relevance of combined detection, particularly HPV-/p16+ and HPV+/p16- signatures, is unknown. A meta-analysis of epidemiologic studies was therefore conducted to address this issue. Data were collected from studies comparing overall survival (OS) and disease-free survival (DFS) / disease-specific survival (DSS) / relapse-free survival (RFS) / progression-free survival (PFS) in ASCC patients with HPV and p16 status. The electronic databases of MEDLINE and EMBASE were searched from their inception till 31 May 2017. Study-specific risk estimates were pooled using a fixed-effects model for OS and DFS/DSS/RFS/PFS. Four studies involving a total of 398 ASCC cases were included in this meta-analysis. The pooled results showed that HPV+/p16+ cancers were significantly associated with improved OS (HR = 0.30, 95% CI: 0.17–0.51) and DFS/DSS/RFS/PFS (HR = 0.23, 95% CI: 0.14–0.36). However, patients with HPV-/p16+ or HPV+/p16- do not have a comparably good prognosis compared with HPV+/p16+ patients. The meta-analysis indicated that concomitant detection of HPV-DNA and p16 expression may be of prognostic or therapeutic utility in the evaluation of factors contributing to ASCC. Testing tumor specimens for HPV-DNA and p16 expression might indirectly affect treatment decisions.