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Effect of follow-up period on minimal-significant dose in the atomic-bomb survivor studies

It was recently suggested that earlier reports on solid-cancer mortality and incidence in the Life Span Study of atomic-bomb survivors contain still-useful information about low-dose risk that should not be ignored, because longer follow-up may lead to attenuated estimates of low-dose risk due to lo...

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Autores principales: Cologne, John, Preston, Dale L., Grant, Eric J., Cullings, Harry M., Ozasa, Kotaro
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Springer Berlin Heidelberg 2017
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5816089/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29164324
http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00411-017-0720-7
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author Cologne, John
Preston, Dale L.
Grant, Eric J.
Cullings, Harry M.
Ozasa, Kotaro
author_facet Cologne, John
Preston, Dale L.
Grant, Eric J.
Cullings, Harry M.
Ozasa, Kotaro
author_sort Cologne, John
collection PubMed
description It was recently suggested that earlier reports on solid-cancer mortality and incidence in the Life Span Study of atomic-bomb survivors contain still-useful information about low-dose risk that should not be ignored, because longer follow-up may lead to attenuated estimates of low-dose risk due to longer time since exposure. Here it is demonstrated, through the use of all follow-up data and risk models stratified on period of follow-up (as opposed to sub-setting the data by follow-up period), that the appearance of risk attenuation over time may be the result of less-precise risk estimation—in particular, imprecise estimation of effect-modification parameters—in the earlier periods. Longer follow-up, in addition to allowing more-precise estimation of risk due to larger numbers of radiation-related cases, provides more-precise adjustment for background mortality or incidence and more-accurate assessment of risk modification by age at exposure and attained age. It is concluded that the latest follow-up data are most appropriate for inferring low-dose risk. Furthermore, if researchers are interested in effects of time since exposure, the most-recent follow-up data should be considered rather than the results of earlier reports. ELECTRONIC SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL: The online version of this article (10.1007/s00411-017-0720-7) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.
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spelling pubmed-58160892018-02-27 Effect of follow-up period on minimal-significant dose in the atomic-bomb survivor studies Cologne, John Preston, Dale L. Grant, Eric J. Cullings, Harry M. Ozasa, Kotaro Radiat Environ Biophys Short Communication It was recently suggested that earlier reports on solid-cancer mortality and incidence in the Life Span Study of atomic-bomb survivors contain still-useful information about low-dose risk that should not be ignored, because longer follow-up may lead to attenuated estimates of low-dose risk due to longer time since exposure. Here it is demonstrated, through the use of all follow-up data and risk models stratified on period of follow-up (as opposed to sub-setting the data by follow-up period), that the appearance of risk attenuation over time may be the result of less-precise risk estimation—in particular, imprecise estimation of effect-modification parameters—in the earlier periods. Longer follow-up, in addition to allowing more-precise estimation of risk due to larger numbers of radiation-related cases, provides more-precise adjustment for background mortality or incidence and more-accurate assessment of risk modification by age at exposure and attained age. It is concluded that the latest follow-up data are most appropriate for inferring low-dose risk. Furthermore, if researchers are interested in effects of time since exposure, the most-recent follow-up data should be considered rather than the results of earlier reports. ELECTRONIC SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL: The online version of this article (10.1007/s00411-017-0720-7) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users. Springer Berlin Heidelberg 2017-11-21 2018 /pmc/articles/PMC5816089/ /pubmed/29164324 http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00411-017-0720-7 Text en © The Author(s) 2017 Open AccessThis article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made.
spellingShingle Short Communication
Cologne, John
Preston, Dale L.
Grant, Eric J.
Cullings, Harry M.
Ozasa, Kotaro
Effect of follow-up period on minimal-significant dose in the atomic-bomb survivor studies
title Effect of follow-up period on minimal-significant dose in the atomic-bomb survivor studies
title_full Effect of follow-up period on minimal-significant dose in the atomic-bomb survivor studies
title_fullStr Effect of follow-up period on minimal-significant dose in the atomic-bomb survivor studies
title_full_unstemmed Effect of follow-up period on minimal-significant dose in the atomic-bomb survivor studies
title_short Effect of follow-up period on minimal-significant dose in the atomic-bomb survivor studies
title_sort effect of follow-up period on minimal-significant dose in the atomic-bomb survivor studies
topic Short Communication
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5816089/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29164324
http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00411-017-0720-7
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