Chronicity of Anterior Cruciate Ligament Deficiency, Part 2: Radiographic Predictors of Early Graft Failure

BACKGROUND: Accumulating evidence suggests that long-term anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) deficiency can give rise to an abnormal tibiofemoral relationship and subsequent intra-articular lesions. However, the effects of chronic ACL deficiency (ACLD) on early graft failure after anatomic reconstruction remain unclear. HYPOTHESIS: We hypothesized that patients with long-term ACLD lasting more than 5 years would have a greater rate of early graft failure due to insufficient intraoperative reduction of the tibia and that the preoperative and immediately postoperative abnormal tibiofemoral relationship in the sagittal plane, such as anterior tibial subluxation (ATS), would correlate with the graft status on postoperative magnetic resonance imaging (MRI). STUDY DESIGN: Cohort study; Level of evidence, 3. METHODS: A total of 358 patients who had undergone anatomic ACL reconstruction with hamstring grafts were divided into 5 groups based on chronicity of ACLD: (1) 0 to 6 months, (2) 6 months to 1 year, (3) 1 to 2 years, (4) 2 to 5 years, and (5) longer than 5 years. Preoperatively and immediately postoperatively, lateral radiographs in full extension were taken in all patients to evaluate the tibiofemoral relationship, specifically with regard to ATS, space for the ACL (sACL), and extension angle. All patients underwent MRI at 6 months to reveal graft status. Groups with a high rate of graft failure were further analyzed to compare demographic and radiographic factors between the intact and failure subgroups, followed by multivariate logistic regression analysis to identify predisposing factors. RESULTS: Graft failure without trauma was observed in 4 (1.8%), 0 (0%), 1 (3.7%), 3 (9.7%), and 8 patients (17.7%) in groups 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5, respectively. Of the 76 patients in groups 4 and 5, significant differences were noted between the failure and intact subgroups in preoperative ATS (4.9 vs 2.4 mm, respectively; P < .01), side-to-side differences in sACL (sACL-SSD) (4.7 vs 1.9 mm, respectively; P < .01), extension deficit (4.4° vs 1.3°, respectively; P < .01), and chondral lesions (P = .02), while postoperative ATS and sACL-SSD showed no differences. Multivariate logistic regression analysis revealed that of these factors, preoperative sACL-SSD could be a risk factor for early graft failure (odds ratio, 3.2; 95% CI, 1.37-7.46). CONCLUSION: Early graft failure at 6 months increased in patients with ACLD longer than 2 years. In this population, preoperative sACL-SSD was the most significant risk factor for early graft failure on MRI. However, immediately postoperative radiographic measurements had no effect on graft failure rates.