Comparison of Models for the Prediction of Medical Costs of Spinal Fusion in Taiwan Diagnosis-Related Groups by Machine Learning Algorithms

OBJECTIVES: The aims of this study were to compare the performance of machine learning methods for the prediction of the medical costs associated with spinal fusion in terms of profit or loss in Taiwan Diagnosis-Related Groups (Tw-DRGs) and to apply these methods to explore the important factors associated with the medical costs of spinal fusion. METHODS: A data set was obtained from a regional hospital in Taoyuan city in Taiwan, which contained data from 2010 to 2013 on patients of Tw-DRG49702 (posterior and other spinal fusion without complications or comorbidities). Naïve-Bayesian, support vector machines, logistic regression, C4.5 decision tree, and random forest methods were employed for prediction using WEKA 3.8.1. RESULTS: Five hundred thirty-two cases were categorized as belonging to the Tw-DRG49702 group. The mean medical cost was US $4,549.7, and the mean age of the patients was 62.4 years. The mean length of stay was 9.3 days. The length of stay was an important variable in terms of determining medical costs for patients undergoing spinal fusion. The random forest method had the best predictive performance in comparison to the other methods, achieving an accuracy of 84.30%, a sensitivity of 71.4%, a specificity of 92.2%, and an AUC of 0.904. CONCLUSIONS: Our study demonstrated that the random forest model can be employed to predict the medical costs of Tw-DRG49702, and could inform hospital strategy in terms of increasing the financial management efficiency of this operation.